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Nial Fuller

NIAL FULLER
Professional Trader, Author & Trading Coach

VIDEO: Live Price Action Trade Analysis on S&P 500 Index

2015-10-28T20:39:22+00:00
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By in Forex Trading Videos Last updated on | 51 Comments

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Please kindly leave a comment below – I would love to hear your thoughts :)

Hi Traders, it’s Nial Fuller here from learntotradethemarket.com and welcome to another trade setups video. Today, I’ll be talking about the price action on the S&P500 daily chart, that’s the U.S. stock market index. I’ve spotted what I think is a good trading opportunity to go long and I’m going to go over the analysis behind the trade setup just to help you guys get a little more of an understanding of how I do things and how I come up with my trading decisions.

I only use price action analysis, that is a naked price chart, a clean chart with a white background and black & white bars / candlesticks and horizontal levels. I don’t use any indicators or anything ‘fancy’. Now, let’s get into the trade setup…

First thing to note on this chart is that over the last year we’ve really had a sideways pattern, it was only until August of this year that we decided to have a break down out of this long-term consolidation. Price broke down all the way back to this long-term support from October of 2014, almost tested it exactly and then rallied all the way back up into this resistance area. You can see, it was support here, on numerous occasions and then on the bounce we held there and it acted as resistance.

Obviously, with basic technical analysis we know that previous support becomes new resistance. So, the market was holding around that 2,000 level and then we sold-off again. But, we didn’t end up testing that recent low or break through it, instead, the bulls came back in and pushed the market straight up back through that resistance, and we are now in a new leg higher. So, the bias as the way I see it, is to the upside and we want to be trading longs, buying the market.

Now, there isn’t a lot of price action evidence to get me into the market now, but what we are doing here is analyzing the overall picture and then we are going to anticipate the next trade.

We can see here the market is edging up against that 2060 level and that’s a level we had identified previously, the line is still on the chart after we zoomed in. When we zoom out we can place the levels and when we zoom in those levels are still relevant.

There’s also another level at 2,011, you can see the market found resistance there and then retraced and then moved back up to that area, had a little pause and then broke through it and then price held it again on a downward retrace to it. So, this area here at 2,0111 is also very significant in the short-term. So, the way I see it is if the market can hold above 2,011, we are poised for more upside.

Now, what I’m going to do is anticipate a trade – however, we don’t have a signal that I would put money behind yet and we aren’t really at a level where we can define our risk correctly. So, what I will do is wait patiently for the market to rotate back down toward that 2,011 level.

However, we might only get a pull back to that 2030 level, which is also a very key level. I’ll be waiting for evidence to get me long via price action signal and that might come n the way of a pin bar, fakey an inside bar or false break. If we see any of those signals in between 2011 – 2034, I’ll be looking to get set long and riding the market as it breaks to fresh highs. Now, that might take up to two weeks to happen, we might actually pop up first and then come back down. But, the idea is that we have identified that the market is generally trending up and we will wait for a pull back and we should eventually see the market continue in the same direction.

Now, just a quick word on how to place a stop loss – I think the logical stop placement on this would be below this swing here and better yet, below 1980 which is well below this swing low there. So, if we were to wait for the market to pull back and get a confirmation signal, we could wait to enter in this area here and have our stop below here and target the recent thighs around 2100, in this region here. This would represent a 3 to 1 risk reward.

As the price action unfolds from here we will update members in the daily trade setups video. Until then, take care and good trading.

Note: Christmas Trading Course Special: Until December 31st, Save 45% Off Nial Fuller's Professional Trading Course, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Live Trading Forum & Email Coaching - Click Here.

About Nial Fuller

is a Professional Trader & Author who is considered ‘The Authority’ on Price Action Trading. He has a monthly readership of 250,000+ traders and has taught 20,000+ students since 2008. Checkout Nial's Professional Forex Course here.
  1. mathurin guy August 29, 2017 at 10:21 am

    hello Nial,

    I am really impressed on how you give details on how to Trade. I am someone who just discover the Trading Market and would like to know more and learn how to Trade special how to consider the pips and diagrams.
    I would like to know how to enter a Trade and how to pull out.

    Thank you

    Reply
  2. Soter June 22, 2017 at 1:28 pm

    Thank you Nial
    I am a beginner and my problem is how do you draw high probability support and resistance levels.

    Reply
  3. matovu zaid murisho May 22, 2017 at 11:13 pm

    i am a beginner in forex trading and i need your help on how to use the price action strategy. i also want to become a member of your team. thank you

    Reply
  4. matovu zaid murisho May 22, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    i am still a learner and i want to perfect in forex trading using the price action strategy. i need your help on how to become a member of your team .

    Reply
  5. Rahmat March 1, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    Hi Nial, thanks for the video. My thought is what is the tale behind market support and resistance? are they Seller and Buyer’s maximum money to be committed in that level.

    Reply
  6. kadi December 27, 2016 at 3:19 am

    Hello Nail, all the videos that you posted in this blog are helpfull. I would like to thank you so much. Really you do a great work here.

    Reply
  7. OZ December 12, 2016 at 5:38 am

    Please I want to learn and be an expert in forex trade if I can get any help.thanks

    Reply
  8. siyabonga November 28, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    great advice thank you

    Reply
  9. Aron November 28, 2016 at 5:30 am

    Thanks for presenting price action in a very simple way. I am still learning price action

    Reply
  10. christzita September 26, 2016 at 8:59 pm

    Thank you sir for the weekly signals is what I’m using tto trade and is help me,thank once again may God bless you.

    Reply
  11. dikeledi September 2, 2016 at 5:17 pm

    Hi Nial
    I did not understand the graphs first but after I have seen the videos I now have clear picture thanks

    Reply
  12. Hayder June 12, 2016 at 6:36 am

    Nail , you are always Wonderful .

    Reply
  13. Neo January 15, 2016 at 7:15 am

    PAtience is profitable

    Reply
    • NTrader April 14, 2016 at 1:43 am

      strongly agree

      Reply
  14. tayyab December 16, 2015 at 4:20 pm

    sir plz tell me .. are u also going to give us a signals in your membership ?

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller December 16, 2015 at 10:26 pm

      We post up a daily trade setups video.

      Reply
  15. tr@de2win November 24, 2015 at 12:17 am

    Nial, How is it in your video that you do not consider the mother bar, inside bar, and pinbar fakey to be a PAS for entry but are waiting for a pullback?

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller November 24, 2015 at 12:35 am

      My initial view worked out perfectly. The market pulled back and then retraced higher strongly. Just because a price action setup forms doesn’t mean we have to trade it, sometimes experience tells us to remain patient for a more ideal setup (and in this example patience paid off).

      Reply
      • tr@de2win November 25, 2015 at 10:59 am

        Thanks Nial. I’m still working on being patient :-)

        Reply
  16. peta November 10, 2015 at 2:29 pm

    I am retreshing an interest and study i began and completed earlier in the year and i am very pleased to have understood and agreed with all your views.thanks for the oportunity to see,cheers Peta

    Reply
  17. Karna Ram November 4, 2015 at 1:47 pm

    Your commnts & relevancy regarding price movements of forex currency pairs are undoubtedly beyond the shadow of doubts & excellently remarkable.

    Reply
  18. Jaime November 4, 2015 at 1:24 pm

    Great example of how to keep the things simple under a logic frame work…. looking forward to seeing more videos like this … super like … greetings from Colombia

    Reply
  19. nba November 3, 2015 at 6:16 pm

    Thanks Nail, you make me a man of hope in my life.

    Reply
  20. bobby boucher November 1, 2015 at 12:33 pm

    Well done, Nial.

    Reply
  21. Daniel Ekah October 31, 2015 at 7:55 pm

    Thank you, Nial. you are a guru, and your video is great!.

    Remain Blessed.

    Reply
  22. Halilu Yahaya October 30, 2015 at 5:28 am

    Very educative as usual. Thanks Sir Nial

    Reply
  23. ldt October 29, 2015 at 2:17 pm

    hi,Nial from Viet Nam

    you and your Strategies really changed mylife, sure !!!

    thank you very very much !!!!

    Reply
  24. Kalai October 29, 2015 at 11:08 am

    Hi Nial,
    Tank you so much for the analysis. It is good to know I am on same page as you to go long on this trade. Do you analyse the weekly charts or monthly charts for SPY?

    Reply
  25. Junior Dias October 29, 2015 at 7:05 am

    Great article, Nial|!

    Thank’s from Brazil!

    Reply
  26. David Di Maria October 29, 2015 at 5:11 am

    Hey Nial
    Nice video , would you consider placing an order without waiting for a for a confirmation bar

    Reply
  27. carlos October 29, 2015 at 3:49 am

    . Thank you, Nial. we need more, like this!

    Reply
  28. Markus October 29, 2015 at 3:20 am

    Hi Nial,
    I thought how brave you are to publish a video like this on the day of an interest decision of the FED. You know how volatile markets can be at such a day – and after. I know you prefer “pure price action” but I still like to have more of a general picture and that tells me it might become more and more difficult for stock markets to rise. Looking at the chart I would never had the idea that it would go back to something like 2011-2030 and then rise again. Thanks for that point of view, for me that’s very interesting! So I’m keen to watch the charts for the coming weeks from the sidelines.

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller October 29, 2015 at 6:29 am

      Markus, I prefer not to over-think. If a market is trending higher I am looking to buy, and if it’s trending lower I’m looking to sell. People often get caught up in a game of thinking themselves out of perfectly good trades by thinking it’s “too high” or “too low”, then they miss all the big moves and finally when the market has proven them wrong enough times, they decide to jump in right before the trend actually does reverse finally.

      Don’t over-think or over-analyze. Learn to trade the price action and follow what it is telling you. News and all of that is factored in. You can see that today clearly…the S&P500 continued higher despite the US interest rate decision and anything else that happened.

      Reply
  29. Oscar October 29, 2015 at 3:16 am

    today´s market is getting higher, no pull-back, no good for swing traders.

    Reply
  30. Yosep Kasim October 29, 2015 at 2:04 am

    Great video,

    Very consistent on your strategy….

    Reply
  31. Neville October 29, 2015 at 12:19 am

    Thanks Nial – one of the most useful videos you have published. Would be great to see similar videos on other markets as well.

    Reply
  32. Marco October 28, 2015 at 11:16 pm

    We have to wait 2 weeks, that’s probably the most important aspect of the video: patience. The analysis tells you where to look for the trade. So if you need to wait 2 weeks, be patience. The price will give you an oportunity and you will do money, don’t worry. That’s important. Trading is not a work in which you have to make money every day o put X positions per week. Sitting back and doing nothing is part of trading, and probably the 80% of the trading work is do nothing, am I right?

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller October 28, 2015 at 11:49 pm

      Marcon you are 100% correct, good trading is sitting on the sidelines waiting. Be patient and wait for the trades to come to you.

      Reply
  33. Dot October 28, 2015 at 10:40 pm

    Thanks Nial, you explain this so it can be understood . It would be helpful if you could show more live videos like this as makes sense how one has to be patient .

    Reply
  34. marisa October 28, 2015 at 10:33 pm

    Nice video Nial. Well done! Muchas gracias

    Reply
  35. P.N. Ranganathan, Ph.D. October 28, 2015 at 10:23 pm

    Hello Nial,
    As always, you are sincere, and try to be logical. Now: 1) it has already re-traced 2075-1860=215 pts (how many pips equivalent is that?), a very high value; 2) It has 13 up-trending bars, incl 4 very strong pushes; 3) High is 2123 – if you believe in those lines (I prefer regions), you have only 48 points left; 4) this is longer-term chart.
    Question: If you believe in cyclic nature of markets, Don’t all these indicate market “nearing” exhaustion? Probability for even moderate wins are very low, which says .. — Look for other markets till you can SELL this?
    ps. Sometimes, simplicity is inadequate. Complex (not complicated) entities ARE needed – As a scientist, I have observed that reality umpteen times.

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller October 28, 2015 at 10:34 pm

      Hey Ranganathan,

      Interesting points you have made. If you listen to my comments I am talking about waiting for a pull back to support and more evidence to confirm a long entry, the entry would be closer to 2011-2034, and thus it is 100 + points back to the previous high. I am looking at the broader chart formation here, the market has really hammered in a bottom in the last few weeks and price has forced its way back up above some major resistance levels (1975 and 2011 are significant levels). Just because the market has gone up 150 to 200 points does not mean it can’t go up another 150 or 200+ points. As I have said in recent articles, the market often goes much further than most imagine, and most sit by and watch the big moves instead of trading them.

      Reply
  36. Adam Turnbull October 28, 2015 at 10:22 pm

    Thank you. This is great stuff. Especially where you put your stops.

    Reply
  37. martin October 28, 2015 at 10:16 pm

    Love the video Nial. Always good to see you break down the charts and show us how it should be down. Cheers.

    Reply
  38. dan October 28, 2015 at 10:13 pm

    HI Nial,
    does the last three candle is not consider a Fakey set up?
    thanks,

    dan

    Reply
    • Nial Fuller October 28, 2015 at 10:30 pm

      Dan it is, but the bars in this pattern are very small, and the pattern has occured right at the top of this leg higher, for me it’s not in the right position to be able to manage risk correctly. In the video I have said I want to wait for a pull back or more evidence to get long. You are in theory correct, the pattern is a fakey and the market could rally higher on the back of this price pattern.

      Reply
  39. Mari October 28, 2015 at 10:09 pm

    Hello Nial! Thank you very much for this video, really explanatory and helpful to make a trade on the following weeks.

    I had already thought about this entry but not yet decided about the area for the SL. Thank you :))

    Reply
  40. bouchaib October 28, 2015 at 10:05 pm

    Hello
    I am really so proud to jion in your comunity
    i like your articls and your vedeos as well.
    have a nice day

    Reply
  41. George October 28, 2015 at 9:55 pm

    It is always good to have good analysis to look at as it reaffirms the importance of sticking to the trading plan and applying patience and discipline.

    Reply
  42. Gabriel October 28, 2015 at 9:53 pm

    Thank you, Nial ! It looks so easy and clear when you explain …

    Reply
  43. Dan October 28, 2015 at 9:51 pm

    Great video!! Really helps to see your thought process.

    Reply

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