• Nial Fuller

    NIAL FULLER Nial Fuller
    Professional Trader, Author & Coach

    VIDEO: Live Price Action Trade Analysis on S&P 500 Index

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    Please kindly leave a comment below – I would love to hear your thoughts :)

    Hi Traders, it’s Nial Fuller here from learntotradethemarket.com and welcome to another trade setups video. Today, I’ll be talking about the price action on the S&P500 daily chart, that’s the U.S. stock market index. I’ve spotted what I think is a good trading opportunity to go long and I’m going to go over the analysis behind the trade setup just to help you guys get a little more of an understanding of how I do things and how I come up with my trading decisions.

    I only use price action analysis, that is a naked price chart, a clean chart with a white background and black & white bars / candlesticks and horizontal levels. I don’t use any indicators or anything ‘fancy’. Now, let’s get into the trade setup…

    First thing to note on this chart is that over the last year we’ve really had a sideways pattern, it was only until August of this year that we decided to have a break down out of this long-term consolidation. Price broke down all the way back to this long-term support from October of 2014, almost tested it exactly and then rallied all the way back up into this resistance area. You can see, it was support here, on numerous occasions and then on the bounce we held there and it acted as resistance.

    Obviously, with basic technical analysis we know that previous support becomes new resistance. So, the market was holding around that 2,000 level and then we sold-off again. But, we didn’t end up testing that recent low or break through it, instead, the bulls came back in and pushed the market straight up back through that resistance, and we are now in a new leg higher. So, the bias as the way I see it, is to the upside and we want to be trading longs, buying the market.

    Now, there isn’t a lot of price action evidence to get me into the market now, but what we are doing here is analyzing the overall picture and then we are going to anticipate the next trade.

    We can see here the market is edging up against that 2060 level and that’s a level we had identified previously, the line is still on the chart after we zoomed in. When we zoom out we can place the levels and when we zoom in those levels are still relevant.

    There’s also another level at 2,011, you can see the market found resistance there and then retraced and then moved back up to that area, had a little pause and then broke through it and then price held it again on a downward retrace to it. So, this area here at 2,0111 is also very significant in the short-term. So, the way I see it is if the market can hold above 2,011, we are poised for more upside.

    Now, what I’m going to do is anticipate a trade – however, we don’t have a signal that I would put money behind yet and we aren’t really at a level where we can define our risk correctly. So, what I will do is wait patiently for the market to rotate back down toward that 2,011 level.

    However, we might only get a pull back to that 2030 level, which is also a very key level. I’ll be waiting for evidence to get me long via price action signal and that might come n the way of a pin bar, fakey an inside bar or false break. If we see any of those signals in between 2011 – 2034, I’ll be looking to get set long and riding the market as it breaks to fresh highs. Now, that might take up to two weeks to happen, we might actually pop up first and then come back down. But, the idea is that we have identified that the market is generally trending up and we will wait for a pull back and we should eventually see the market continue in the same direction.

    Now, just a quick word on how to place a stop loss – I think the logical stop placement on this would be below this swing here and better yet, below 1980 which is well below this swing low there. So, if we were to wait for the market to pull back and get a confirmation signal, we could wait to enter in this area here and have our stop below here and target the recent thighs around 2100, in this region here. This would represent a 3 to 1 risk reward.

    As the price action unfolds from here we will update members in the daily trade setups video. Until then, take care and good trading.

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    Nial Fuller

    About Nial Fuller

    is a Professional Trader, Investor & Author who is considered ‘The Authority’ on Price Action Trading. His blog is read by over 200,000+ followers and he has taught 25,000+ students since 2008. In 2016, Nial won the Million Dollar Trader Competition. Checkout Nial's Professional Trading Course here.
    Nial Fuller Professional Trading Course Preferred broker 2020 v1
    1. James

      Another great video. Love your educational approach, it just works. I recommend everyone joins LTTTM, I did so recently and I am really enjoying it alot.

      Reply
    2. Ram

      Hi Nail.

      In the same video, understand that you want to wait for the pull back for a good risk reward ratio but what I see a fakey exactly at the current price area. A mother candle, inside bar and the next candle wick which broke the mother candle. Dont you think the price may shoot up straight up?

      Please comment

      Thanks

      Reply
    3. Xolani

      Hi Nial

      I really enjoy this video it is specific to the point and mostly important is the clear indication of the level of resistance.
      How to trace when you look back to the left and that gives you a clear indication of where the market is going based on the previous high & lows.

      To be a newbie is hard in trading and you need to get as much information as possible to survive.
      Thank you again for such an amazing work.

      Reply
    4. geoff

      I like the clarity of your explanations

      Reply
    5. Fabio Pierini

      Thanks Nial

      Reply
    6. Subaha Saif

      Thanks a lot…

      Reply
    7. Msizi Michael Shange

      Can I use this strategy in hour time frame?

      Reply
      • Wiseman

        Thanx a lot

        Reply
    8. Mark Burton

      Thank you for such a fast reply. Ill look into it.

      Reply
    9. Mark Burton

      Ive been studying Gold since the Spring of 2017 Seeing your videos makes me realise why Ive been feeding the markets. I should have found you sooner! Thank you for taking the time to help beginners like me. As a Binary Trader, Im using “High Low” would you recommend a different platform? Thank you

      Reply
    10. Manoj Palekar

      EXCELLENT VIDEO , SIR WHICH BOOKS WILL YOU SUGGEST FOR LEARNING PRICE ACTION

      Reply
    11. Daphney Chauked

      Great video. Thank you

      Reply
    12. mathurin guy

      hello Nial,

      I am really impressed on how you give details on how to Trade. I am someone who just discover the Trading Market and would like to know more and learn how to Trade special how to consider the pips and diagrams.
      I would like to know how to enter a Trade and how to pull out.

      Thank you

      Reply
    13. Soter

      Thank you Nial
      I am a beginner and my problem is how do you draw high probability support and resistance levels.

      Reply
    14. matovu zaid murisho

      i am a beginner in forex trading and i need your help on how to use the price action strategy. i also want to become a member of your team. thank you

      Reply
    15. matovu zaid murisho

      i am still a learner and i want to perfect in forex trading using the price action strategy. i need your help on how to become a member of your team .

      Reply
    16. Rahmat

      Hi Nial, thanks for the video. My thought is what is the tale behind market support and resistance? are they Seller and Buyer’s maximum money to be committed in that level.

      Reply
    17. kadi

      Hello Nail, all the videos that you posted in this blog are helpfull. I would like to thank you so much. Really you do a great work here.

      Reply
    18. OZ

      Please I want to learn and be an expert in forex trade if I can get any help.thanks

      Reply
    19. siyabonga

      great advice thank you

      Reply
    20. Aron

      Thanks for presenting price action in a very simple way. I am still learning price action

      Reply
    21. christzita

      Thank you sir for the weekly signals is what I’m using tto trade and is help me,thank once again may God bless you.

      Reply
    22. dikeledi

      Hi Nial
      I did not understand the graphs first but after I have seen the videos I now have clear picture thanks

      Reply
    23. Hayder

      Nail , you are always Wonderful .

      Reply
    24. Neo

      PAtience is profitable

      Reply
      • NTrader

        strongly agree

        Reply
    25. tayyab

      sir plz tell me .. are u also going to give us a signals in your membership ?

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        We post up a daily trade setups video.

        Reply
    26. Nial, How is it in your video that you do not consider the mother bar, inside bar, and pinbar fakey to be a PAS for entry but are waiting for a pullback?

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        My initial view worked out perfectly. The market pulled back and then retraced higher strongly. Just because a price action setup forms doesn’t mean we have to trade it, sometimes experience tells us to remain patient for a more ideal setup (and in this example patience paid off).

        Reply
    27. peta

      I am retreshing an interest and study i began and completed earlier in the year and i am very pleased to have understood and agreed with all your views.thanks for the oportunity to see,cheers Peta

      Reply
    28. Karna Ram

      Your commnts & relevancy regarding price movements of forex currency pairs are undoubtedly beyond the shadow of doubts & excellently remarkable.

      Reply
    29. Jaime

      Great example of how to keep the things simple under a logic frame work…. looking forward to seeing more videos like this … super like … greetings from Colombia

      Reply
    30. nba

      Thanks Nail, you make me a man of hope in my life.

      Reply
    31. bobby boucher

      Well done, Nial.

      Reply
    32. Daniel Ekah

      Thank you, Nial. you are a guru, and your video is great!.

      Remain Blessed.

      Reply
    33. Halilu Yahaya

      Very educative as usual. Thanks Sir Nial

      Reply
    34. ldt

      hi,Nial from Viet Nam

      you and your Strategies really changed mylife, sure !!!

      thank you very very much !!!!

      Reply
    35. Kalai

      Hi Nial,
      Tank you so much for the analysis. It is good to know I am on same page as you to go long on this trade. Do you analyse the weekly charts or monthly charts for SPY?

      Reply
    36. Junior Dias

      Great article, Nial|!

      Thank’s from Brazil!

      Reply
    37. David Di Maria

      Hey Nial
      Nice video , would you consider placing an order without waiting for a for a confirmation bar

      Reply
    38. carlos

      . Thank you, Nial. we need more, like this!

      Reply
    39. Markus

      Hi Nial,
      I thought how brave you are to publish a video like this on the day of an interest decision of the FED. You know how volatile markets can be at such a day – and after. I know you prefer “pure price action” but I still like to have more of a general picture and that tells me it might become more and more difficult for stock markets to rise. Looking at the chart I would never had the idea that it would go back to something like 2011-2030 and then rise again. Thanks for that point of view, for me that’s very interesting! So I’m keen to watch the charts for the coming weeks from the sidelines.

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        Markus, I prefer not to over-think. If a market is trending higher I am looking to buy, and if it’s trending lower I’m looking to sell. People often get caught up in a game of thinking themselves out of perfectly good trades by thinking it’s “too high” or “too low”, then they miss all the big moves and finally when the market has proven them wrong enough times, they decide to jump in right before the trend actually does reverse finally.

        Don’t over-think or over-analyze. Learn to trade the price action and follow what it is telling you. News and all of that is factored in. You can see that today clearly…the S&P500 continued higher despite the US interest rate decision and anything else that happened.

        Reply
    40. Oscar

      today´s market is getting higher, no pull-back, no good for swing traders.

      Reply
    41. Yosep Kasim

      Great video,

      Very consistent on your strategy….

      Reply
    42. Neville

      Thanks Nial – one of the most useful videos you have published. Would be great to see similar videos on other markets as well.

      Reply
    43. Marco

      We have to wait 2 weeks, that’s probably the most important aspect of the video: patience. The analysis tells you where to look for the trade. So if you need to wait 2 weeks, be patience. The price will give you an oportunity and you will do money, don’t worry. That’s important. Trading is not a work in which you have to make money every day o put X positions per week. Sitting back and doing nothing is part of trading, and probably the 80% of the trading work is do nothing, am I right?

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        Marcon you are 100% correct, good trading is sitting on the sidelines waiting. Be patient and wait for the trades to come to you.

        Reply
    44. Dot

      Thanks Nial, you explain this so it can be understood . It would be helpful if you could show more live videos like this as makes sense how one has to be patient .

      Reply
    45. marisa

      Nice video Nial. Well done! Muchas gracias

      Reply
    46. P.N. Ranganathan, Ph.D.

      Hello Nial,
      As always, you are sincere, and try to be logical. Now: 1) it has already re-traced 2075-1860=215 pts (how many pips equivalent is that?), a very high value; 2) It has 13 up-trending bars, incl 4 very strong pushes; 3) High is 2123 – if you believe in those lines (I prefer regions), you have only 48 points left; 4) this is longer-term chart.
      Question: If you believe in cyclic nature of markets, Don’t all these indicate market “nearing” exhaustion? Probability for even moderate wins are very low, which says .. — Look for other markets till you can SELL this?
      ps. Sometimes, simplicity is inadequate. Complex (not complicated) entities ARE needed – As a scientist, I have observed that reality umpteen times.

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        Hey Ranganathan,

        Interesting points you have made. If you listen to my comments I am talking about waiting for a pull back to support and more evidence to confirm a long entry, the entry would be closer to 2011-2034, and thus it is 100 + points back to the previous high. I am looking at the broader chart formation here, the market has really hammered in a bottom in the last few weeks and price has forced its way back up above some major resistance levels (1975 and 2011 are significant levels). Just because the market has gone up 150 to 200 points does not mean it can’t go up another 150 or 200+ points. As I have said in recent articles, the market often goes much further than most imagine, and most sit by and watch the big moves instead of trading them.

        Reply
    47. Adam Turnbull

      Thank you. This is great stuff. Especially where you put your stops.

      Reply
    48. martin

      Love the video Nial. Always good to see you break down the charts and show us how it should be down. Cheers.

      Reply
    49. dan

      HI Nial,
      does the last three candle is not consider a Fakey set up?
      thanks,

      dan

      Reply
      • Nial Fuller

        Dan it is, but the bars in this pattern are very small, and the pattern has occured right at the top of this leg higher, for me it’s not in the right position to be able to manage risk correctly. In the video I have said I want to wait for a pull back or more evidence to get long. You are in theory correct, the pattern is a fakey and the market could rally higher on the back of this price pattern.

        Reply
    50. Mari

      Hello Nial! Thank you very much for this video, really explanatory and helpful to make a trade on the following weeks.

      I had already thought about this entry but not yet decided about the area for the SL. Thank you :))

      Reply
    51. bouchaib

      Hello
      I am really so proud to jion in your comunity
      i like your articls and your vedeos as well.
      have a nice day

      Reply
    52. George

      It is always good to have good analysis to look at as it reaffirms the importance of sticking to the trading plan and applying patience and discipline.

      Reply
    53. Gabriel

      Thank you, Nial ! It looks so easy and clear when you explain …

      Reply
    54. Dan

      Great video!! Really helps to see your thought process.

      Reply

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