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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Dot blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – September 10th to 14th, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily candletick chart time-frames unless marked otherwise.
EURUSD – It All depends on 1.1535 this week.
Chart Summary: Neutral Bias. 2 weeks ago, price recently broke down below 1.1535 but quickly reversed higher, triggering a massive short covering rally. This has created a massive bullish fakey + pin bar on the monthly chart, a bullish sign.
Despite the market remaining above the 1.1535 major support level, we should note that price has stalled again and is headed lower again. We will need to see price action confirmation around this support before committing to buy again.
Potential Trade Idea: Wait for a price action buy signal to confirm an entry around 1.1525, otherwise stand aside.
GBPUSD – Huge bearish pin bar signal warns of pending sell off.
Chart Summary: Bearish Bias. Long term down trend remains in tact with the most relevant nearby resistance levels at 1.2950 and 1.3100 and support at 1.2820 and 1.2660.
A massive bearish pin bar reversal has formed on the daily chart, suggesting prices are poised to move lower aggressively towards recent lows at 1.2820 and 1.2660 in the near term.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short at market price or wait for any price strength to sell short, targeting a move into 1.2820 and 1.2660.
GOLD – Downside risk whilst under $1237
Chart Summary: Bearish Bias. Down trend remains in tact with nearby resistance at $1205 – $1215 zone and $1237 level.
We have seen a strong recovery in prices off the lows, however price remain contained at resistance and well under the $1237 major containment level we noted recently.
Prices are rejecting the $1205 – $1215 resistance levels. We can see 2 very small bearish tailed bars recently on daily chart, a sign prices are rejecting overhead resistance, if we hold under these levels, prices could sell off again towards recent lows near $1150-60.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any price strength whilst price is under $1205-$1215 resistance.
CRUDE OIL – Playing both sides of the market from key levels
Chart Summary: Neutral Bias. Oil has failed to break out at $70.34 resistance, forming a massive bearish pin bar reversal on daily chart. We are in the process of selling off to the below support around $64.20 to $66.20, before we expect any substantial bounce.
We can also see 2 bullish tailed bars on the daily chart time frame, suggesting the bulls are lurking around these lower support levels ready to take prices higher. With major support at the $64.20 to $66.20 range still holding firmly, the bias still remains bullish overall.
Trade Idea 1: Consider selling short on any strength whilst under $70.34.
Trade Idea 2: Consider buying on any price pull back / weakness around the $64.20 to $66.20 support zone, or wait for a price action buy signal in that support region on the daily time frame.
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