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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Don’t blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – Oct 29th to Nov 2nd, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily chart time-frames unless marked otherwise.
EURUSD – Bearish momentum prevails under 1.1535 key level
Chart Summary: Price has now broken below both 1.1615 and 1.1535 support zones, activating a short term bearish leg lower.
This week it all depends on the 1.1615 to 1.1535 key resistance area again.
The bearish Fakey setup that activated a week ago still remains in play, with prices continuing to fall.
The market remains contained under the 1.1535 to 1.1615 resistance area and thus we continue to prefer selling short on strength whilst that resistance range holds firm.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any short term strength whilst price is below 1.1535 key resistance level. Targeting a move to 1.1298.
GBPUSD – The current downside swing targets 1.2660
Chart Summary: Price remains in a broader range, with overhead key resistance levels at 1.3020 and 1.3295 and minor support levels at 1.2780 and 1.2660.
Price has broken down after a bearish tailed bar signal last week, slicing through the 1.3020 level and tracking lower into 1.2780. Prices look to be headed into the major level near 1.2660
The market remains contained under the 1.3020 resistance and thus we continue to prefer selling short on strength whilst that resistance range holds firm.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling on any strength whilst price remains under 1.3020 or wait for another price action signal to confirm an entry. This downside swing targets 1.2780 and 1.2660.
GBPJPY – Box pattern breaks lower, bearish trend established.
Chart Summary: Trend is now bearish after price broke down from the box pattern discussed previously.
A subsequent inside bar form on the daily chart which has led to a further break down, with prices reaching the previously mentioned target support area of 143.80
The market is now firmly contained under the 146.80, thus we continue to prefer selling on a pull back whilst that resistance holds firm.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider waiting for a price action sell signal to confirm an entry. Targeting a move to 143.80 or lower.
GOLD (Spot Gold) – Watching $1205 – $1215 support area for opportunities
Chart Summary: Prices remains in a short term bullish upward swing after having reconnected back above the short term resistance at the $1205 – $1215 zone and are staging a recovery.
Price has broken through the highs of the multiple inside bar pattern and reached the first target level of $1237 ( discussed in prior comments). Traders can consider watching the $1205 to $1215 support area for buying opportunities on any dips lower (old resistance now support). The first upside target would be the overhead resistance at $1237, with the second upside target potentially $1265 if momentum builds.
The bias remains short term bullish above the $1205 to $1215 support range, and thus we continue to prefer buying on weakness until that support fails. We are not trading the bearish pin bar that formed late last week, it’s against the short term trend.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider waiting for a bullish price action above the $1205 to $1215 support area, targeting a move back to $1237 and possibly $1265.
DOW JONES USA – Looking for a dead cat bounce to sell short from resistance
Summary: Bearish bias developing as support at 25000 fails. Major resistance at 25620. Major support sits at 23980, a long way down.
From here it’s likely the market will remain volatile so we can play both sides of the market. We won’t be committing to a trade until we see a price action signal, either from support at 23980 or at 25000 and 25620 resistance.
Mid last week, prices failed at 25000, slicing through the long tailed pin that looked to be holding prices up above that level. Prices sold off further, but staged a strong bounce on Friday, where we saw a bullish tailed bar form. This bullish signal could see prices stage a short term bounce back up through 25000 and into 25620 resistance.
Whilst this momentum remains extremely bearish, traders could consider looking to sell on any strength whilst price remains below 25000 to 25620 resistance area, targeting lower levels towards 24500 and the 23980.
Potential Trade Idea: Traders could look to sell on any strength whilst price remains below the 25000 to 25620 resistance area. Targeting a move back to 24500 or even as low as 23980.
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