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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Don’t blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – November 12th to 16th, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily candlestick charts unless marked otherwise.
S&P 500 USA – Bearish under 2860 resistance, look to sell short on strength.
Summary: Bearish bias activates as support at 2690 fails. Major resistance levels at 2790 to 2860 area. Major support sits at 2650-90 area and 2550. From here it’s likely the market will remain volatile so we can play both sides of the market.
Price has entered the major resistance zone between 2790 to 2860. There is significant risk for the market to stall and reverse lower here, so be on alert for sell signals. We prefer waiting for a clear sell signal on 4 hour or daily chart, between 2790 to 2860 key resistance region, before considering another short entry.
Trade Idea: Traders can consider selling short on a clear sell signal on the 4 hour or daily chart, whilst price remains contained below the key chart levels at 2790 and 2860. Targeting a move back to 2650-90 area and then 2550.
NOTE – We suggest traders avoid holding long positions (buys) over the weekend.
EURUSD – Bearish under 1.1535, look to sell short on strength.
Summary: Price has now broken below both 1.1615 and 1.1535 support zones, activating a bearish leg lower. Price remains contained under the 1.1535 to 1.1615 resistance area and thus we continue to prefer selling short on strength whilst that resistance range holds firm.
Last week, price pushed up towards the key resistance we have been discussing at 1.1535, formed a bearish pin bar signal and has sold off aggressively. The bias remains bearish under 1.1535, we continue to prefer selling on strength.
Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any short term pull backs in price whilst price is below 1.1535 key resistance level. Targeting a move to 1.1298 and potentially lower.
GBPUSD – Bullish above 1.2900, look to buy on weakness.
Summary: Price remains in a broader range between 1.2660 and 1.3295. There is also a key level in the middle of the range around 1.3020 that is also very relevant.
Price rallies strongly over the past 2 weeks, reconnecting back above 1.2900 and 1.3020. It all depends on the 1.2900 to 1.3020 support area, if that area of support holds, we could easily move up to the top of the range towards 1.3295 again. We prefer to wait for a bullish price action pattern around the 1.2900 to 1.3020 support range.
Trade Idea: Waiting for a price action buy signal around the 1.2900 to 1.3020 support range to confirm an entry, targeting 1.3295.
USDJPY – Bullish above 1.1205, look to buy on weakness.
Summary: The market is grinding higher after forming a base around 112.05 support, likely targeting a move back towards the old high around 114.50’s
The bullish fakey setup discussed prior has triggered after prices took out the high of the mother bar of the fakey pattern. We continue to prefer buying on any price dips whilst price is atop the 112.05 support level.
We saw a bullish tailed bar form right right at 1.1320 last week, which has led to a continuing higher over the past few days. As per our recent updates, we still prefer to buy on any dips whilst price is atop 112.05 major support level, or on a clear buy signal.
Trade Idea: Consider buying on the dips whilst prices are above the 112.05 support area or on a price action buy signal, targeting a move back to 113.18 and then 114.50’s (recent highs).
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