Why I’m Betting Big On TRUMP ‘Again’ To Win The 2020 US Election
I’ve just placed a sizeable 6 figure bet on TRUMP to win re-election in the US 2020 presidential race, here’s why…
Many of my long time readers will remember my wager on Trump to win the election in 2016 which returned over 500%, a giant trade and a result that most people around me said could never happen. Fast forward to 2020, and those same people are telling me Trump can’t win again.
Readers might also remember I predicted three big events for 2020 in my Coronavirus article I posted in March 2020, two of which have come true so far, with one pending.
1. The US economy would bounce back in a V shape recovery (called that correctly so far).
2. The stock market crash was a buying opportunity (called that correctly as market has surged higher).
3. Trump was likely to be re elected in 2020 (result pending, will know shortly).
For those interested in the 2020 election from a from a financial markets / betting markets perspective, this article will outline why I believe Trump will win re-election in 2020 and retain the white house. Just like I did for the 2016 US election, I am going to be presenting some unique data and various perspectives on the 2020 US election that most people are usually afraid to share publicly or have not bothered to go out and find from alternative publications outside of the mainstream media outlets.
To benefit from this article you will need to put your political bias and any views of Trump aside for a moment. I’m not American, but after seeing Trump’s first term in office, I would personally vote for Trump in 2020 for a variety of financial and economic reasons. In saying that, remember, I am a business person, a trader and investor, so there are built in capitalistic biases here. I have good friends in the USA who have left and right side views, and it always makes for a good healthy debate, but it never divides us and it never should. I do not judge people for having different political views, we all have our reasons for these views, different upbringings and different circumstances that lead to us having these belief systems. With that said, these differing views don’t have a place in Predicting the 2020 election or any election for that matter, and we must remove all emotion in performing meaningful analysis.
Here’s why I believe TRUMP wins 2020.
Disclaimer: (Don’t trade, invest or bet based on the views in this article, please do your own research)
The Statistical Metrics:
The Prediction Polls are wrong (again).
We all know 99% of the polling predictions were wrong in 2016, and many contrarians now believe they are wrong again in 2020 (including me). As of today, the few polls I know of that correctly predicted the 2016 election are also predicting a Trump win in 2020.
Rasmussen, one of the the most accurate pollsters that predicted 2016 election result, is today showing 52% of Americans approve of Trump as president, a number that is equal to or higher than Obama was at going into his Final term as president in 2012. The presidential approval rating is tracked daily and is rapidly increasing in recent weeks.
The Trafalgar Group pollsters had been incredibly accurate in 2016 election using a state by state electoral college prediction model with unique questions and unique collection methods, proving far superior to other pollsters. They are known for apply a different polling method designed to target silent Trump voters who are usually too afraid to give an opinion to a stranger out of fear of being attacked or trolled. One question they ask voters is ‘Who is your Neighbor voting for’ which has a very high level of success in predicting US elections as it turns out, and apparently the answer to this question is overwhelmingly as ‘Trump’. They are also known for connecting with African American and Hispanic voters in a unique way to create a more ‘ real world ‘ sample size of the American voter demographic in each state. For 2020 Trafalgar are again predicting the US electoral college will be won by Trump, and they are currently reporting an accelerating move to Trump in key swing states (US states that historically can change from Democrat to Republican or vice versa) in the closing stages of the race. Trafalgar poll data is often completely different to mainstream poll data you might see on TV or mainstream websites. All we can go off is who was most accurate previously, and Trafalgar have that edge in both 2016 main election and the 2018 mid term election, so they should have our attention.
We have a famous Gallop poll that reported 56% of Americans say they are better off financially under Trump than under Obama/Biden, the highest number recorded ever for that poll. This just can’t be ignored especially when you consider we are in the middle of a Pandemic and an economic slow down. The ‘are you better off poll’ has been a major predictor of US election results in recent years.
Back in 2016, an article by radio host and author Wayne Allyn Root helped me fully understand Fake Polls and the Hidden Trump vote. He is again out there discussing these same points for Trump in 2020, citing fake polls and social evidence proving Trump’s overwhelming popularity.
You can read a recent article by Wayne Allyn Root on Trump’s chances for 2020 here.
From the above sources, we can see the Polling evidence shows momentum for Trump late into the race, just like 2016. Keep an eye on the Rasmussen Daily Presidential approval rating poll and Trafalgar state by state polling data closer to election day.
The Primary Model predicts US election wins 90% of the time:
Professor Helmut Norpoth accurately predicts US elections using a method he has developed call the ‘Primary Model’. He looks at the % of vote each Presidential candidate received within their own respective political party during the Primary vote before the main election. According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in 2020. For the record, the Primary Model has picked the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. You can read more about Professor Norpoths Primary Model here.
Trump has the incumbent edge:
Most Presidents typically get re-elected for a 2nd term. It’s very hard to win an election against the Incumbent president.
It’s very interesting to note that in the three times in history that America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year, the incumbent political party has had a 3-0 winning record in those elections.
Of the forty five presidents who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, IF they have attempted to run for a second term. Some may argue the recession changes these statistics for re-election of the incumbent president, but when you look more closely, the stats on re-election of a President who won an election (as opposed to being promoted from vice president to president), are actually closer to 50/50 during a pandemic, so there is no statistical bias to note.
The Social Metrics:
Trump’s supporters and enthusiasm are completely unmatched.
Trump has true ‘love of country’, and a lot of the country loves him back, despite what the media says. Drive anywhere in most of the USA’s 50 states right now (except California and New York), and you are far more likely to see Trump signs and flags lining freeways, streets and front yards. Attend a Trump campaign rally, a presidential motorcade drive by, an air force one landing or take off, a car or boat parade or anything involving President Trump that’s an ‘in person’ event where fans can gather and cheer, and the attendance numbers are staggering in size. These are the largest numbers of support on the ground for any Presidential candidate in US election history. Biden doesn’t even make a dent on Trump’s ground support and the enthusiasm, with a handful of voters turning out for any of Biden’s campaign events. We are talking about completely different stratospheres of enthusiasm between the candidates here. Those that follow elections know that Enthusiasm wins elections. Trump has a truly unshakeable supporter base and as of Today’s polling numbers has mid 90% approval rating within the Republican party which is probably the highest on record.
Social media engagement heavily favors Trump
President Trumps social media account’s engagement drastically dwarfs his opponent Biden’s accounts by several hundred percent. Trump has omnipresence online, he is the topic of the minute, the hour, the day, the week, the month, he is always everywhere. The broader right leaning Republican and conservative social media influencer accounts have around 10 times (yes TEN times) the social sharing and virality that the Democratic left leaning social media influencer accounts have. As an example, if you go to YouTube to watch a video with anything about Trump (that isn’t CNN or MSNBC), you will usually always see substantially higher ‘thumbs up votes’ than on a video about Biden. Trump’s support is hiding in plain sight online, just as they where in 2016, but now it’s becoming more obvious. Professor Bela Stantic of Griffith University Australia, (Nick named ‘Nostradamus of the 21st Century’) has accurately predicted 3 major long shot political votes in recent years using social media analysis. He predicted Trumps 2016 win, UK’s Brexit, The 2019 Australian election and many more. He now predicts Trump will win 2020. You can watch a recent interview with Professor Bela Stantic’s 2020 US election prediction here.
Biased left media actually strengthens Trump’s support base and has the opposite effect to what is intended.
It’s no secret that the big Media players and Social media giants are incredibly left wing biased and are virtual extensions of the Democratic party, with a goal of controlling a left wing narrative online. Go to your Twitter news feed or Google news feed and this bias becomes obvious. Go to the CNN, MSNBC or ABC website and then compares those 3 media outlets to the FOX News website, and you will clearly see the left wing media treats Trump with extreme bias and simply doesn’t cover any positive stories in order to prevent Democrats reading anything positive about the president. The bias is staggering, with around 90% of all news about Trump being negative on left wing media platforms. The problem for the Democrats is that when you have 90% of news bashing a person that almost 50% of American people voted for, love and support, you create a massive social a retaliation and movement which manifests in even stronger support for Trump over time. Despite what some say, there are a large number of Americans that are smart enough to see what is going on, and many make a stand against this unfair censorship and suppression of the truth by voting for Trump.
New Republican registration numbers are up
There are larger numbers of Republican voters registering than Democrats in key ‘swing states’ (the key states that decide US elections). This might just turn out to be very relevant in one of the key swing states that decide the election. Remember that Trump won some states in 2016 by razor thin margins.
Biden is a weak candidate
We should firstly remember Joe Biden has ran for president 2 times before and failed, this will be his 3rd attempt! Biden’s boring persona, old age and terrible track record during his 47 years in US politics really does make him a very weak candidate. He has no exciting plans or tag lines for his policies that have caught on. This contrasts with Trump’s massive ego, charisma and strong presence (Many Americans relate to and are drawn to his persona, believe me). He has a major skill in branding his plans and policies into catchy tag lines such as ‘Build a Wall’ and ‘Drain The Swamp’ and more recently ‘Fill That Seat’ and ‘The Cure Can Not Be Worse Than The Problem’ etc. This combination of personality and memorable tag lines, works together to excite his base and recruits new voters to his bas who might not have noticed him otherwise.
Biden is really a placeholder for his vice president candidate Kamala Harris who plans to take over the presidency during his first or second term. Make no mistake, the American voters are wary of this Trojan horse play by the Democrats who want a far left President who believes in a socialistic economy, and they know if they vote for Biden, it will be Kamala Harris’s policies that will be rolled out in the end when she eventually takes office. We should also remember that vice president candidate Kamala Harris received poor numbers from her own party in her recent bid to become the Democratic Presidential nominee.
Americans prefer law and order and safety.
The ‘Black Lives Matters’ (BLM) movement has a very important message that will hopefully change the world in some way into the future, however, right now it’s hurting the Democrats. One large focus for voters during this election will be the violent protests and riots that have spawned from the BLM movement. People are scared and afraid and they are going to put law and order, gun ownership and safety for their families, well ahead of any social justice movement or political views. Many Americans are thinking about what might happen if the Police presence is changed in various cities and what might happen if protestors and rioters are given a ‘pass’ by the democrats to do what they want out of fear of losing the far left support within their base. Trump has been pro Law and Order, Biden has not. Trump has been endorsed by every Police department in every state across the USA, Biden has not. It’s also worth noting a huge surge in Gun purchases this year demonstrate Americans real fear of danger and the desire for personal protection. These factors will play a role in voters decision making regardless of what party they support and should attract fresh votes for Trump from segments of the population that have real concerns about the recent social unrest, riots and protesting chaos.
Americans want freedom from Lock downs, masks and restrictions.
Trump is Anti Lock Down and Anti Masks, and his base and many others agree with him on these points, claiming the right to freedom of choice. Biden is Pro Lock downs, Pro restrictions and Pro masks.
Despite the hysterical left wing media constantly bombarding us with Covid-19 fear mongering and ridiculing anybody who isn’t wearing a mask or standing 2 meters apart, there are increasing numbers of American voters from all parties who have lost patience with the Pandemic and the social restrictions it has brought with it. American voters are smart enough to know Trump is trying to balance the Pandemic along with the Economy, and they can see the strategy is working because people are starting to resume work and get back to some kind of ‘new normal’. Ultimately without the economy and jobs there is going to be nothing left to save, and that has been Trumps core message “The cure can’t be worse than the problem”. Even if you disagree with this statement, we all know deep in our hearts that most of us are not going to survive much longer mentally with these virus related restrictions, it simply has to end. The world health organization just admitted lock downs and over the top restrictions are not working and do more damage to people than the virus itself long term. So as it turns out, Trump was right to refuse to keep strict lock downs and restrictions in place across the country and to start opening up the country quickly, going against advice from many advisors. Anybody watching closely know he’s the reason the USA economy is bouncing back faster than anticipated. I think this a huge win for Trump overall on the Covid-19 virus crisis.
Trump is selling his Pro Economy, Pro Jobs, Pro Business and Pro Law & Order stance. Biden isn’t really selling anything other than Raising taxes and Covid-19.
There are a plethora of unique issues going on in the USA this year. Ultimately I believe people are going to be thinking about a few core issues when they cast a vote this year (regardless of political party). These issues are likely to be 1. Finances for self and family 2. Safety for self and family and 3. Health for self and family. I believes Trump’s policy on lower taxes and de-regulation, rebuilding the economy, a firm stance on continued Policing (Law and Order), and his commitment to overhaul parts of the failing American health insurance system, will be front and center in voters minds this year. Many will agree Trump’s slow on health care reform, but from all the data points I am watching, it is really Trump’s pro economy and pro jobs stance during this pandemic that far outweighs almost anything else currently. Remember, people vote with their wallet and bank balance in mind ALOT of the time.
Does anybody believe a person that just returned to work after XYZ months earning zero income, is going to go out and vote for Biden who wants to lock them in their house, force every person in state to wear a mask, and to put more restrictions on them again ? Trump understands the economy and he understands how businesses and workers are feeling right now. He will play this to his advantage with frustrated voters who want to get on with their life, get back to work, or re start a business.
Trump is also pro fossil fuels, pro oil and gas, pro coal, and pro fracking. He has convinced voters that without him they will lose these industries and jobs in certain states. During a recession, this is a very real and very serious issue to most voters in the relevant states where these industries employ millions of people and are the oxygen to these states economies. It’s these policies that that will definitely earn Trump a majority of votes in many of these impacted states come election day.
His opponent Biden’s main policies seem to be transitioning to a ‘greener’ energy economy, raising taxes!, Covid-19 lock downs and masks, and asking people to choose him because he has a more ‘presidential’ personality. These policies aren’t going to win him more votes during a pandemic and economic recession. People simply want to get back to work or business, start making some money again and to start moving around their community, freely and safely again.
Trump is winning over many African American and Hispanic voters.
Due to his positive track record with African and Hispanic American voters in his first few years of office, there has been a big shift in the African American and Hispanic vote for 2020. A recent survey showed African American voters approval rating for President Trump has soared from 20% to 45%. You also have to look at how many African American celebrities have recently come out to support Trump and educate Black voters why Trump is a better choice for them going forward. Actor ‘ICE Cube’ favors Trump because they are working on the ‘Platinum Plan’ together which will benefit the Black community. We then have Musician ’50 Cent’ endorsing Trump, stating ‘ I don’t want to be 20 cent ‘, citing Biden’s plans to raise taxes. What African American is every going to forget Biden’s famous words “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” These extra votes from Black voters and Hispanic voters is something that could help take Trump over the top in key states.
The Silent Trump voter is a very real thing.
Using my own network as an initial example here. I have a business associate in the USA whom is a Trump supporter living in the swing state of Michigan. He will not put up a Trump 2020 sign or flag in the front yard and will not wear a MAGA hat and he won’t put a Trump/Pence bumper sticker on pick up truck. If a pollster calls, texts or emails him, he won’t reveal he is voting for Trump or just won’t respond at all. The reason he explains is due to most of the Democrats being so extremely hateful of Trump and his supporters, especially since the protesting and riots started, he says he risks being attacked and judged within his local community. My friend here is is not alone, with an estimated 25% of Trump supporters never revealing their political views to people they don’t know or trust. As I stated earlier, The Trafalgar Group pollsters understand this Shy Trump voter which is why they have developed a special process to determine if a person is voting for Trump, far different to almost every other pollster out there. If people aren’t telling pollsters they are voting for Trump, it’s no wonder the polls were skewed in 2016 and are be skewed again in 2020.
With the above said, my Prediction is that TRUMP will win the 2020 US Election with around 270 to 310 electoral college votes. With the current odds on Trump offered by bookmakers at $2.80 or 9/5 (almost a 2 to 1 risk reward), the opportunity looks compelling. Given my conviction on the outcome, I have wagered a high 6 figure sum at average odds of around $2.60. If successful, my total winnings on both Trump wagers across 2016 and 2020 will exceed $600k AUD. If you do intend to take a view on the 2020 election via the stock market or via wagering markets, please do your own research first and be smart with what capital you are risking.
Good luck to Trump on November 3rd, and good luck to those banking on the outcome.
Gold Coast, Australia
Tell Me Who You Think Will Win The 2020 US Election and Why ? – Leave A Comment Below. (Note: No political trolling will be permitted in the comments, relevant and productive comments are welcome)
183 Comments Leave a Comment
Even though this is now a dated article, and Biden ‘won’ the top position, I like your analysis and am sure you would have won your bet had the progressives not interfered with the process so badly. To understand what actually happened, I recommend that everyone here view the D’Souza film, Two Thousand Mules.
I have been hanging on and still hopeful that Trump will be sworn in on the 20th of January 2021 as the President. What do you think is the likely outcome Nial?
I normally don’t speculate on results. I trade the increased volatility during this period. Price goes from support to resistance very fast. Quick profits and quick exits. Doesn’t matter who wins. Price action wins.
Now there is media speculation. The media do not decide who will become president. The US electoral system is ineffective.
Even the votes of the people do not decide on the choice of the president.
Who becomes the president will be decided by the court. Trump will throw all his strength into this. And in this sector, Trump is stronger than Biden
Ouch Nial- it doesn’t look good for us Trump voters or your bet. Did they already decide your bet as a loss? My local newspaper reports Biden to go live with acceptance speech. Lawsuits abound in the courts and as far as I can tell the outcome is not official but plenty of early Biden celebration out there.
Thank you Nial for this article.
Very good insights of your thoughtprocess.
No matter who wins. Even that it is the 5th of November and it seems that sleepy Jo is winning, I hope that the Trump voters can turn it around.
He is a great president, maybe the best since JFK.
The other side (big tech, fake media, Hollyweird, Bloomberg, Sorrors etc.) spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the campain to try to take him down.
since you’ve put yourself out there, I thought I should do likewise. Yesterday I crystallized my thinking and I’ve put 100$ on Biden to win. The reasons are:
One argument in favor of Trump is the silent Trump voter – the one who carried the day in 2016, I’m thinking they have a president and they are still ‘scared’ to tell a pollster they support him?
Also there is another group of people who don’t want to say who they support and that’s Republicans who don’t like Trump, they want to remain republican and don’t want to be seen as traitors.
Plus I think that this time the Democrats will get more of their supporters out to vote. The standard turnout in an USA election is about 45% I believe.
Also the 2014 mid term elections had the lowest turnout since about 1903 and the 2018 mid term elections had the highest turnout since WW2 and the cause of this stark reversal was Trump’s victory in 2016. Who would this favor? I think on balance it’s Biden. I think it means it’s risky to rely on predictions based on pre-Trump conditions.
What does this mean ‘I think it means it’s risky to rely on predictions based on pre-Trump conditions’ ?
The USA changed after Trump’s became president. (Also Covid-19 is a big change as well) We can only know for sure what the effect of these two events when we look back on them after maybe a few years
As we approach election eve with the polls narrowing I have learned from this article and thread to separate emotions (what you wish for), from what is happening (price action) – this is so relevant to being a successful trader – thankyou Niall for kicking this off, I am not a Trump fan but the vote outcome will be the vote outcome ( and price action is price action).
Your analysis is detailed and highly credible. I have put the same indicators and obstacles in my Scuta risk assessment tool and the odds of President Trump winning right now is 64%.
Love your work.
A colleague recently told me that he had set up a dual FB account under an assumed name so he could post pro-Trump items. He (Washington State resident) felt that if his employer knew he was pro-Trump, his employment could be terminated (worst case scenario) or he would be marginalized (best case scenario).
I choose Trump.Trump is a man of action. Unlike NATO I.e. No Action Talk Only.
Here are some interesting statistics for all of you. Every incumbent with a approval rating of less then 50% has lost reelection. Currently Trump’s rating is about 45%. It could get higher by election time but at this moment the odds are he will lose.
Approval rating changes daily, and there is only one firm tracking approval rating almost daily in the current polling landscape,
Trumps approval in recent days is actually closer to 50 to 52% in many polls that are not controlled and biased by left media etc.
Your stat of no incumbent president winning without 50% or more approval also isn’t correct, but it depends on the data points your using and from who.
Thanks for your thorough summary of why you have made this wager. I hope you are right, for several reasons.
I would be interested to know your opinion on what, if any, impact the “youth turnout” (18-29) could have on the seemingly reliable reasons you have shared? The left leaning media has been indicating that this could spell doom for Trump as they are forecasting record youth turnout (the record is 2008), which at least one study has put as breaking 65-25 for Biden. My thoughts on this are that it would obviously matter which specific states this turnout might occur in, but I am a little worried that there is some merit to their claims.
Thanks and best regards!
Many will not like the conclusion in this analysis, and that for good reasons. But it won’t change anything. I believe this analysis is helpful at least because it has a dispassionate credential, honest, and courageous. I am hoping that the antagonists will be sincere and courageous to congratulate you come November 3.
A very brilliant article indeed! The logic is as compelling as it’s dispassionate. I believe that if your facts had pointed to a Biden win, you would have equally shown it in your analysis. Yes, because your money is involved. This shows how you trade the markets, and I have learned a few things here. Thanks, Nial.
Hi Nial, I agree with your opinion – Trump will win the u.s election. ( we’ll I hope so) Trump seems to slate the media alot ( I detest, the media – full of made up crap – there is always a narrative, in my Opinion to discredit Trump) People Love Trump, because he truly loves America. And lets remember……..he provides many ,many Jobs, for those who work within his business empire. This is a time, when those people, are grateful to be working. It Truly seems there is an agenda from ( elitists ) to gain more control, and have us locked in our homes, or go round with the muzzle on ( mask)
It seems he is rebelling against the pressure from above, for the u.s citizens and around the world to NOT go to work ( and completely destroy the countries ,economies, which ultimately provides income, and puts food on the table.
In England, where I live ( people laughed at the thought of Boris Johnson being a future prime minister- He was often called a Clown. Yet he earned the keys to number 10. Probably, because of brexit. ( taking so bloody long to finalise, which was annoying millions of voters, like me. If you piss enough of the countries, people off – they will WANT fundamental change. ANYONE they think, that will change the narrative. Trump is one of those CHANGERS!!
Your analysis sounds convincing, but in reality, the elections really depend on the electoral college math. That’s all you need. No polls, no yard signs, or whomever your best buddy votes for.
Last time around, trump won the presidency with a little over 70k votes across 3 swing states. The winner takes all deal might not make it seem obvious, but that is very very close. And that was with low historic turnout in those states and 3rd party candidates siphoning off votes.
But the turnout this time around is epic, way too many revenge voters who never voted at all last time, especially the under 30 crowd with whom Trump is widely unpopular, and pretty much no significant 3rd parties.
The electoral college math shows your bet is in a very precarious position.
I might even go on a limb to call it that Trump will lose Texas or Florida…one of the two. And in either case it will be pretty much over.
Loved the Article Nial, so well written and compelling-unlike some detractors, youve put your money where your mouth is. Im sure you will win your bet!!
People go on feeling, less so on logic. So Trump should win from what i see from over here in Oz. He talks action and jobs. People like that. The fed etc. will keep printing money and pushing stock markets higher until the system implodes on itself and resets. Maybe a few years away yet. The S&P 500 index is worth considering buying on a dip as it’ll likely keep rising for awhile. Next crash forecast – when all the money printing and stimulus’ cracks. Take care out there
I’m just wondering, are you hedging you bet in any way?
It’s an all or nothing bet, almost 2 to 1 risk reward.
In my opinion, all the confusion about this topic, and almost any other topic, is our own ignorance.
One can get very well informed by watching both: CNN, Fox, and anything in between. Very few people would remain biased after gaining some relevant information (only people that have some personal interests, inability to decide for themselves, etc…).
The main problem is, that many people don’t want more information. They are afraid of being persuaded, they are afraid of change.
To those that are not afraid, see the link below.
Big thank you to Nial for being brave and sharing his thoughts, and not being afraid to be wrong (his teaching, isn’t it).
Good luck to all, and whatever happens have in mind that God works in mysterious ways.
What makes these elections so unique is that people will vote with their safety and wallets mind. Wallet speak the loudest. “Lockdown with no money the wallet” vs “Money in the wallet with relaxed lock down rules”. Peope would rather risk the chances or contacting the virus in their quest to have money in the wallet rather than stay home, be safe from the virus but starve. Trump will win.
That’s what I was trying to say in the article, people vote with their Wallet most of the time, I agree.
Enjoyed your analysis very much.
I thought you’d find Robert Barnes’ analysis on why Trump will win, as or even more compelling. (linked below)
He believes polling is a terrible method of determining who will win. And like you, he will be wagering an enormous sum on Trump. Except because gambling on the election is illegal here in the USA, he’ll be flying all the way to Dublin to do it!
Very well written. I sure hope you are right, as I am a Trump voter.
As an American who follows politics a lot more then I care to admit, I must disagree with some of your personal assertions and assumptions of both candidates and the U.S. electorate, but don’t want to dwell on that. Just saw a Gallup poll showing that 87% of blacks disapprove of Trump. Not the least surprising and a far cry from your optimistic view, despite what a few celebrities might say. More importantly, have you considered the possibility that the pollsters that got it wrong in 2016 may have tweaked and improved their methodology and at least won’t make the same mistakes. They have. Also, Rasmussen and Trafalgar are known to have republican biases built into their models so if a republican wins a particular election they will most likely be correct, because of the bias and not their predictive prowess. Can’t explain the Norpoth results. They truly seem amazing. As you well know, past performance is no guarantee of future results. I wouldn’t rush out to buy that new yacht quite yet, but good luck.
That black voter approval number you quoted is incorrect according to various sources I’m looking at …but you might be correct, let’s see the results. I also disagree on the polls I’m watching being biased to republicans.
Ron is completely ignoring a fact that is recognised by US voters and is going to sway their attitude towards the next President. This fact is that never before in US history has a defeated presidential candidate and party been so antagonistic and hateful towards the new President.
Never before has a defeated candidate scorned and express hatred for the public because of their defeat. And for that Hillary Clinton is to blame. The US voters will be aware that the lack of confidence in the US political system has been caused by the Democrats rejecting the will of the people in 2016 and they will be determined that the Democrats should never benefit from their intransigence. Well before election day the Democrats will be deciding how they can rid the party of those people who wanted to impose a socialist regime on the country.
The Democrats have reached the bottom of the pit. The climb back to relevance must begin immediately.
Nope, the Dems did not reject the “will of the voters”. The EC did. In any genuine democracy where every vote counts, Hillary would have won with 3 Million votes more than Trump. The US system is anything but democratic. And looking at the current mess and efforts to deprive voters from getting their votes counted or even submitted, is simply mind boggling. Predicting an outcome with such a mess is simply impossible.
Just placed a small bet that Biden would win. My assumption is that the increase in voter participation is a result of disapproval of Trump. Only the election will tell.
Heroic assumption Tim. I think increased turnout is largely positive agitation from the President’s efforts.
Excellent analysis. A very wide ranging sources of data, each with high success track records. Its a pity that the US main stream media avoids some of the polls and researchers you have referred to. Looks like your #3 prediction is in the truth hatchery.
Checking you sources I deduce that you rely on the king maker Rupert Murdoch’s news outlets for your analysis then you must be correct.
Most unbiased independent news agencies state that Trump will lose.
The professor interviewed has nothing to do with Sky news or Fox News, he’s renowned data scientist from an Australian university. Your response really makes no sense in regards to the data presented, you just wanted to find a reason to assume it was biased and clearly it isn’t.
Great blog post Nial A+,
If Biden wins America will be rolled back to the globalist, new world order agenda where a few elites control just about everything. Most Americans were raised to be culturally conservative. Values such as love of family ,love of country, church on Sunday if you wish, and a job that pays the bills are what matter.
President Trump is not a globalist, he wants to see America take care of itself for a change. Bringing home the jobs that where shipped overseas might just ” make America great again”. My vote is for Trump but a clean election is probably not in the cards…
Nial, your analysis is correct and revealing. History had shown that the incumbents are powerful and influential, may be because of the paraphernalia of office and track record. Trump as incumbent president of United states of America stand a greater chance to be re-elected again against all odds.
All I’m going to say is, I don’t believe your analysis is comprehensive- I don’t think you’ve identified your risks here well enough. Trump may win, but there is data not included here that, if he loses, will provide the explanation.
It’s worth remembering that Trump is the most disliked President in the last century, not just in the U.S. His approval rating has never gone above 50% meaningfully.
Presidential race aside for a moment, the data points to Democrats gaining ground in all areas since 2016. This *might* result in a closer race than pro-Trump voters anticipate.
What I will say is that we will only know on the day (3rd November)- evidence indicates that most Trump voters will only vote at the last minute, so any lead Biden shows now will be eroded at the close, but will it be enough for Trump to win? Of course, it’s only the Electoral College count that matters.
why you told Trump is dislike president in the last century.. he is hero
dislike in the world is Obama
Great article Nial. Very informative. Not being American I can only go by the leftist crap news media that dominates and expect that Trump will loose. I desperately hope that that is not the case. A Democtat victory would be a disaster for the US and the world I believe. Trump would be a shoe in if the Covid disaster was not so devistating. He is not the sort of guy I would want as a friend, but that is irrelevant when it comes to who is the best choice to recieve my vote. I hope that voters consider their great christian heritage and cast a vote for traditional conservative values.
Thank you Nial for this valuable info. God bless!!
I don’t see how the guy who lost by three million votes, and “won” the electoral college by about a total of 100k votes in a few swing States can make up what’s surely going to be an even larger margin this time around. Unemployment is in double digits, the Republicans are prioritizing a supreme court nomination vs. helping americans that are struggling (which certainly includes a lot of Republicans).
You Just nailed it, am an African(Uganda), I have been a strong commentator, mostly on many social platforms rallying African voters in USA to Vote for Trump Under Africa4trump2020.com, you cant be more right in your analysis, the tides are in favor of the conservatives, having another short at the white house, The aftermath of the BLM Chaos has for ever changed the Americans outlook on the Democratic policies, this may even severely affect their bid at the end of the Trumps 4 year term.
I agree that Trump will win but not because he is a good President, but definitely because he is a good salesperson. Trump knows how to feed the information that people want! Whether or not you deliver is another matter altogether.
Everyone knows that the person who knows how to manipulate the situation is usually the ultimate winner.
It is a fact that majority of any country population are not smart to think too far beyond their daily routine. If you are good in sales and knows how to deliver information to your benefit, you will probably be able to win over more than 50% of the population, simply because statistics has shown that intellectuals form the minority in the worlds population.
You do not need SMART supporters, you just need MORE supporters to win.
And if you are a business person, tendency is you will know how to make money with Trump than the conservative democrats. So i have to agree that Trump will probably win this election.
Woohoo Nial…. go… love the article by Wayne Allan too!!…. regards
Trump will get the majority of votes on election day but as the postal votes begin to turn the tide it will become a ‘contested election’ and Trump will declare himself the winner. So I would look closely at how the betting houses define the ‘winner’.
Totally agree Trump will win – the DEMS and their (far) Left leaning (Antifa/BLM nonsense)i ideology will be a major part of their undoing. I got onto Trump 4 months ago at decent odds. One thing that jumped out at me was that the ‘bookie’ was also giving odds on Harris….. Go Trump !,,,
That’s my bet too – a Trump win. And oh, by the way, I’ll be betting at the earliest opportunity on Mike Pence being the next president after Trump for 2 terms as well.
In this world, only minority can see the truth clearly. Nial, you are one of them!
Thanks for the article. Endorse what you are saying. People want optimism and certainty.
Trump is big on that factor with his presentations.
Initially I thought Trump would certainly lose. I’ve come across other views not just yours arguing that he will win, based on the matter of people are intending to vote for Trump but not prepared to tell a pollster that they are planning to do that.
However, I think there are two complicating factors : Turn out in a USA presidential election is usually about 45%, but this year the turn out will higher and I think that is likely to be a deciding factor but I couldn’t say which way it would go.
And Covid-19 is causing a lot more postal votes to be cast.
Nial – I sure hope you are correct.
This article was so clear to me and the AmerIcan people. Thanks for sharing, Trump will win with a LANDSLIDE111111. He is a great president and loves the UNITED STATES AND US PEOPLE. GOD BLESS HIM
You’re a capitalist Niall? Unless you own vast amounts of property, you’re really just someone who believes in capitalism. Money and capital aren’t really the same thing.
Your article really lost me with the statements about Biden raising taxes. Secondly, my own research exactly contradicts your own.
The elderly, particularly in Florida, are leaving Trump in droves as they’re actually very worried about covid. Trump has refused to condemn white extremists and is losing numbers of non whites.
Oil and gas doesn’t employ ‘millions’ of people. Just as here in Australia people in the Hunter Valley overestimate mining employment and revenue by a factor of four. You’ve fallen into the same trap here.
Lastly, 2016 for Trump had him presented as anti establishment. People now see he’s a shonk with $400 million in debt who refuses to declare his tax particulars.
One final point. This stuff about left wing media bias is pure fantasy. Right wing supporters are mixing up the fact that Trump gets reported accurately on for being a nonce with bias. It’s not bias if it’s true.
If you’re right I’ll be the first to congratulate you.
I think this reply by Dave shows the blinkers that left wingers have.
“The elderly, particularly in Florida, are leaving Trump in droves as they’re actually very worried about covid” – even the biased left wingers have reported that the race is extremely tight in Florida, so even if Dave is true that the elderly are leaving, others are coming over to Trump in droves.
“Trump has refused to condemn white extremists and is losing numbers of non whites.” – again, nonsense. A simple youtube search which show you all the times Trump has condemned white supremacy. This is a great example of taking CNN as gospel.
“People now see he’s a shonk with $400 million in debt who refuses to declare his tax particulars.” – Anyone with half a brain cell knows the personal tax returns are mostly irrelevant. If you really want to know if someone is doing something dodgy, you need to look at hidden LLC returns. This would probably explain how Biden got so rich being a career politician, by taking dodgy money and hiding it. Any other explanation to his wealth? Same with Pelosi…
“One final point. This stuff about left wing media bias is pure fantasy. Right wing supporters are mixing up the fact that Trump gets reported accurately on for being a nonce with bias. It’s not bias if it’s true.” – again, blinkers. A recent study showed 91% of all reports by CNN/MSNBC etc (aka the far left propagandists) of Trump were negative. Virtually 0 coverage of increased black/hispanic employment, of the middle east peace deals, and nothing on him being nominated for peace deals.
It’s great that you say you’ve done some research, but it’s probably wise to not use the CNN website as the source of that research. I’m sure Nial looks forward to your congratulations in just over a week!
How would you know what I own or have ? I am a card carrying capitalist by every definition.
“This stuff about left wing media bias is pure fantasy.”
Clearly, you’re part of the problem, Dave.
I agree, zero fantasy. As somebody outside of the USA who watches both left and right media, there are 2 very different sides to the same story every day. There is major suppression of information and facts going on in left wing media as well.
Hope you`re right, bookies in Poland JB 1:1,57 and DT 1:2,4 .
Your analysis is compelling and indeed sounds plausible. However, as an American, I would tell you it is simply difficult to predict the outcome of American politics because there are just too many variables that influence how the electorate truly feels. Polls are vastly inaccurate for this very reason. It’s not that they are fake, and there is no purposeful bias. It’s just the nature of America’s quasi-flawed or complex democratic process rife with discriminatory intricacies. And this is from both parties, but notoriously the GOP. America portrays itself as the beacon of democracy around the world, but in reality, it’s simply far from it. Most of this is because of the shady practices of the GOP around the country.
For example, as you might be convinced that there is that silent Trump voter who does not respond to polls, there may be exponentially more of the democratic voters who respond to polls, but their voting access has been severely stymied.
Gerrymandering of districts, reduction of polling places in majority democratic districts which are controlled by a GOP legislature (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, Florida), Surgical voter requirements for suppression ( e.g. handgun license ok to use for voter identification, citizens older than 65 can use an expired ID or drivers license, while the younger population is barred – note that this is because they can see the data and can see where their registered voters are and the corresponding demographics they have in order to facilitate voting for them but restrict everyone else), are just a few of the tools employed. Suppressing post office operations, voter intimidation at polling places, Using fake ballot boxes to collect ballots and subsequently discard them (California), Fighting in court to make faithless electors legal, and now they are. I could go on and on.
Recently a huge one was the governor of Texas reducing hand in ballot locations to one per county because of “election security concerns”, but that had never been a concern at all in previous elections before now. The GOP has paid, sophisticated geniuses that comb through voter registration data to stratify and filter out their voters and subsequently facilitate their voting access and restrict others. And with the advent of technology, this scheme has been exacerbated. This is in plain sight and is undisputed, and quite frankly truly a shame for a country that pushes “democracy” around the world, costing lives in the process. But it is truly hypocritical.
My entire point is, the “democratic electoral process” in the US is massively tarnished. Any predictions based on whatever data, whatever resources, biased media, polls, online presence, how your neighborhood feels, which party your best friend is registered to, the number of political signs you see or don’t see…..whatever it is, is simply limited by shady electoral practices and will never truly reflect the feelings of the electorate accurately.
However I understand this is a bet on the absolute outcome, and at the end of the day, that is what we would go by. But no one should ever feel like they have made an informed decision on American politics based on “research” or “data”, because the real scene on the ground is a completely different picture.
I am an independent voter. Trump may win, but not because of the love and admiration for him. It would simply be because of the genius electoral bias that the GOP has instituted round the nation. As it stands, especially as the supreme court has pretty much approved gerrymandering, right now, for any other candidate that is not republican to win in any race, there needs to be at least 3-5 times the turn out of the other party, just to win. That’s hardly a democratic process.
Any party being in charge of drawing districts in any legislature, is not a democratic process. It needs to be independent.
A secretary of state (in charge of running the state’s election), should not be a candidate for Senate in the same election he is running (Florida), that’s just crazy. Faithless electors that can unanimously decide to vote the other way, despite what the people have voted for is unquestionably undemocratic (seriously, this has to be the worse of them all).
There are just so many things wrong with the American electoral process, that results should always be taken with a grain of salt. No matter who wins.
I think you are wrong.
The surging COVID-19 cases will be the final nail in the coffin for the Trump campaign.
Excellent report Nial. How do you think oil and gold will react to a trump win?
So, what would be a Trump trade example and Biden trade example ?
Nice article Nial…
I am of the same view because of many reasons and i can relate your article very much with what happened in India with Modi and similar with Boris in UK in last few years. Somehow i find that in last few years, public in general have shown more love or confidence in people who talk lot of thing very straight forward. If we watch only news channel then we will think that they are stupid , taking economy down and lack knowledge of politics. But on other hand when you talk to ground level people or business community, they find them very appealing as they generating business right in their area where they live not in china, not just in office to complete five years to enjoy luxury. Trump has done a trade war with China but who finally got benefit of it, US people and US small business who was dying in competition.
Another thing is their boldness in showing or facing some enemy face to face like Trump did with Korea. It was a very bold steps who no one able to take in so many years. Bringing them to a discussion table.
Rest is all in future, time will tell.
Hope you are very well recovering from your injury!
you analysis is quite detailed and makes a convincing argument. However I believe that because it is too detailed and overwhelming, the assumption you make is not as strong as suggested. I think there should be some kind of hedge or lower bet. I noticed that most of the comments were favorable to Trump. Does this verify the assumption a significant part of Trump supporters are hidden or in this case that they are not hidden, not sure? A lot of then are non-US citizens so I not sure if it relevant. I am voting for Biden because I don’t think Trumps is good for the country in his character and policies. However I have to agree with you that a great many people vote by what they think affects their checkbooks. I hope everyone is aware that Hilary won the popular vote and lost electoral vote. Anyway thank you for this article. It gives us a different analysis and makes the result of this elections much more interesting. If Trump wins we will have to reconsider the election poles that we believe in.
Tim your vote for Trump if u’ve not voted yet is a rescue for Africa, us as African would want more involvement of America in Africa than China, we have great markets for Americans Supper Goods which have been knocked out by fake Chinese made, a vote for bidden will exacerbate this nonsense.
Dear Nial! I agree that Trump will win the 2020 election. There are a number of prerequisites for this.
i agree with you that Trump will win .But in 2016 you would have lost your bet as Trump won by more than 310 college
on Betfair you can get 3.00 or 2/1 just on Trump to win only no extra conditions and in an ordinary betting shop Trump is 7/4
Plus i reckon Trump will win more states than he did in 2016.
Good luck everyone and get on .
I had no conditions on my bet in 2016 and none in 2020. Odds change Daily and now odds are a bit higher, that’s the luck of timing.
Very bold predictions.
Your extreme Trump bias is showing from this article.
I agree, well put together argument. However, one thing you don’t mention is the cheating with mail in ballots going on with Democrats. We all know this election will come down to Penn. Mich, NC. Along with media probably ready to announce a Biden victory a minute after polls close, this could be a long haul. These people would risk civil war to remove him from office.
Agree with you Nial! Just keep sharing openly. It’s up lifting. There are may people that cannot discuss this election in a respectful manner. It’s about the bottom line.
You are going to find out for sure and for real all about FAKE NEWS COME Nov 3rd.
You may of course Blame the news media who respectfully fooled you with all their lies.
Good Luck Brett .Do not back against Trump as have you not noticed that he always wins.
Great perspective and write-up, Nial… Two thumbs up, I, completely, agree with you… Trump, even, wins majority of the votes, in many major countries of the world, when paired up, against their leaders, Trump wins, hands down, including all the major countries of Europe, UK, and Africa… In fact, Trump is like moving, dynamic leadership personality, that most people of the world would want to be their leader, including, yours truly… TRUMP WINS… Shalom!
so what to say- one low probability trade/ election doesn’t increase the likely hood of the next much lower probability trade working out–trump could win 80/20 doesn’t lose every time random trades do produce winners–your analysis of the American situation is only valid in the fox fantasy universe- your personal political preferences have overwhelmed your ability to usefully evaluate the data-I won’t wish you luck with this one
Look at results of the US Election 2016, UK Brexit and most Recent UK and Australian elections… The polls have been wrong so often in recent history. I’m using data and logic to predict outcomes. Yes I have a bias being a capitalist but it often gives me an edge. Fox News is biased but far less biased than other US media, so it gives me way more clarity on Trump and his chances.
Surely if both are biased then both will give a faulty and clouded view on the issue, that makes no sense in trading terms , one is less biased than the other…. how on earth could you use that in a trade , it makes absolutely no sense.
My bet on the election outcome is not based on Fox News it’s based on data and research, most of which I have linked to and mentioned in detail. The social Factor observations are based on research and some are opinions of course. The article is meant to be building a case for why I think Trump will win, I don’t have to be neutral and I can be biased if I want to, it’s my Blog, my opinion and my money on the line.
hasnt the polls paid attention to this logical issue that they have been wrong all this while and they want to get it right this time? dont you think even Dems will be dishing out money on polls to ensure they get close to accurate results this time.
It doesn’t work like that, polling methods need to change and main stream polls are yet to adapt to the new modern world. Also there is a bias in many polls to discourage some voters a lot of the time. The left has control of every large tech company and almost all main steam media, the agenda is to discourage you to think Trump can win as much as possible. Polls also can’t pick up shy voters who are nervous to share the truth on who they will vote for, fearing social attack.
Thank you Nial for the great polling resources that I will be checking daily and the great and informative article.
It’s truly refreshing to hear some truth in light of all the monsterous left biased garbage from the fake news sources.
I’ve been predicting a Trump landslide for at least the past 6 months. NOBODY wants to watch OUR country being destroyed by mob groups moving from city to city, destroying virtually everything in it’s path, looting, etc. THAT kind of activity is EXACTLY WHY Trump will get re-elected. The radical left has ruined Biden’s chance for a socialist agenda. The “silent majority” WILL COME OUT AND VOTE BY THE MILLIONS and put AN END this to UNWANTED BEHAVIOR in America. Trump tried to stop it in Portland by bringing in Federal Agents and his attempt to restore peace and help protect Federal Property was UNWELCOMED??? and rejected by those in charge?? WHY??? So continuing to ALLOW civil unrest is the answer we want??? HELL NO!!! Defunding police is the answer??? HELL NO!!! That would only CAUSE even MORE VIOLENT AND NON-STOP UNCONTROLLED CIVIL UNREST because there would be NO Law & Order whatsoever. *(Your pro life comment was removed and edited by moderator as this was not G rated)*
Trump cares and is initiating steps to end this and Biden & Harris DO NOT CARE!!
Trump cares for this country deeply and it shows in his day to day work ethic, the man is ALWAYS WORKING for the American people. TRYING to negotiate a FAIR trade deal with other countries is a BAD THING???
Personally I agree that he isn’t the most polished politician and I would like to see him utilize more humility and diplomacy when speaking but that is something that can worked on.
Frankly, Biden hasn’t projected any true vision for this country but there’s one thing for sure is he openly stated his plan to RAISE TAXES. While I certainly do appreciate the honesty, HOW is making a statement like that ever going to generate votes?
I could go on but again Trump WILL WIN with a landslide victory with an even larger margin of victory than in 2016.
Excellent article Nial, I can’t imagine anyone in their rite mind voting for “Liar Byden”
You Are A Great Trader & Writer, But As An American I Can Tell You… Don’t Place That Bet.. I Won’t Elaborate, But That’s Money That You Will Lose.
I was very curious to read your explanation on the election outcome and I am deeply disappointed that you cannot do it without a still maintaining a heavy pro-Trump bias.
You make some interesting points, not all of which I find completely convincing and some facts wrong. Numerous police representatives openly did NOT endorse Trump, i.e. Also, the ongoing disrespectful and ignorant behavior, serious treason and fraud allegations and ongoing trashtalking might appall a lot of people who wish to see a person of dignity and manners to represent their nation.
All together, while I am completly open to how the outcome may be, this case is not convincing enough to me to put an all-in-bet on. I wish you good luck though!
Very pleased to read your analysis. In France we don’t say Good L… As a sailor I’m allowed to say : Good Wind !
Very good article
“Yes, Trump could still win if everything breaks his way. But it would be foolhardy, even delusional, to count on it. Elliot Morris and the team at The Economist currently give Biden a 91% chance of victory. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team are only slightly more generous to Trump, giving him a paltry 13% chance of winning. The RealClearPolitics polling average–which weights significantly to Republicans by giving conservative outlier pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar equal weight with more reputable pollsters while discounting more Democratic-leaning trackers–currently assumes Biden will win a landslide 357 electoral votes. The Biden campaign is sending him to Georgia in the final days, a sign that the campaign sees internal polling numbers it likes and wants to expand the map. Current early vote totals showing strong youth and Democratic turnout–including among those who did not vote in 2016–are suggestive of a good result for Biden. Many GOP operatives and some politicians are already suggesting a “bloodbath” for Republicans and hedging their bets on a Trump loss as well.” — Washington Monthly
Great to see we have 2 different opinions, this is what makes a market. I was right in 2016, I could Of course be wrong in 2020. The media said 90% chance for Clinton in 2016, and they are saying it again for Biden in 2020, they Clearly do this to discourage votes from the right ! The media might succeed this time who knows.
We are traders who do not dwell on loosing trades. The polls were wrong 4 years ago but they have been right most of time if not all the time prior to 2016 except Brexit and the US elections. In 2020 there are other components that make this election extremely challenging for Trump even though it is fair to say the incumbent often holds the advantage. Not so this year Biden is out raising Trump 3 to 1 in contributions and spending most of those resources in the swing states. In addition the Lincoln Project a Republican influence group formed to defeat Donald Trump is helping the Dems on the cause. I could be wrong but I just do not see Trump winning but then again who is to say that Trump will accept the results. One thing we can guarantee with some degree of certainty is that come Nov 3 the chaos will reign and you can bet that Trump will lead the way.
“That’s what makes a trade” – shrewd assessment/response i.e. issue based not emotionally driven.
Attn: Moderator…….I meant to say ‘that’s what makes a market’ – could you please alter or should I resend?
‘That’s what makes a market’ – shrewd assessment/response ….i.e ISSUE based not emotionally driven.
I doubt Majority Americans hold the same perspective and analysis you well enumerated.
You are going to find out for sure and for real all about FAKE NEWS COME Nov 3rd.
Dont blame anyone but your self for believing the FAKE NEWS as you were warn and told about it again and again.
You may of course Blame the news media who respectfully fooled you with all their lies.
Good Luck Brett .Do not back against Trump as have you not noticed that he allways wins.
Good luck Eugene – your tears on Nov 3rd will fill the lakes :-)
Very insightful article Nial. I sure hope you prove to be correct. I live in Biden’s home state of Delaware and I can tell you by the dearth of Biden campaign signs to be seen, that even here enthusiasm for his socialist message is meager.
I think COVID 19 numbers in the US Black Lives Matter movement are huge issues and both issues don’t help Trump
Here is someone who does not rely on fundamentals to make trade recommendations attempting to make an argument about the US elections using similar parameters. The United States of America have 50 states and out of those the electoral college is divided among Republicans (red states) and Democrats (blue states). The elections will be decided in the swing states because the rest are already assigned to Trump and Biden will almost 100% accuracy. Trump will not win NY, Ca, NJ or any blue state and Biden will not win Kansas, Missouri, Utah or any red state. The so called purple states are Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. and now add to the list the former red states of Texas and Georgia that are now consider purple. If Trump looses Texas and wins the rest he is done . If he loses Florida and wins the rest he is done. If he loses Georgia and wins the rest he is done. If he loses Ohio and wins the rest he is done. If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania and wins the rest he is done. Regardless of what the polls indicate today the parameters been used are quite different from 2016 and I have seen The Trafalgar Group fail so many other polls especially the midterm elections which makes them no different than the other pollsters. On election day watch the comments on exit polls and they indicate anything that implies the word CHANGE look out. I have lived in the United States most of my life and this time around I choose the technicals by looking at the electorate college map and the math requires to reach 270 electoral colleges. In 2016 Hillary lost the elections because in those swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan etc, the African American turnout was the lowest of the last 4 presidential elections. Good luck in your bet Neil and we’ll find out in a few days who the next POTUS will be.
from the internet:
“Historian who has accurately called every election since 1984 says Biden will beat Trump in 2020 race
The American University historian Allan Lichtman’s predictions are worth paying attention to because he has accurately forecast every election since 1984, including President Donald Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.”
I really wouldn’t bet against Allan Lichtman predictions. From where I’m sitting, here in the US, it looks to me like a landslide victory for Biden.
Spot on. Great post Nial!
I totally agree with everything you said. I can’t imagine ANYONE voting for Biden.
A very powerful and very positive article.Thank you Nial.I am a Trumper and admire him because of his sincerety and unfathamable love for his country which is uncommon in any politician.Thank you very much
This is the case when myself being from India !
You bring up a lot of points that I have not heard here in America. They should be food for thought for everyone.
well, I pray that president Trump will win and also believe It should be the wish of each and every one here (higher stock markets) also what he did and still doing (He and his team) in the middle east …. He has done more then any other president in the history of the US!!!!
that’s a kind of proof he is working!!! with proven results!
I think If Joe biden takes this election heaven forbid, It would be a disaster for US because of the anti amrican Representatives in the Democrat party which will 100% deteriorate the United States into the abyss.
A super article.It gives hope and life together.I was depressed recently by reading main stream media news.I was worried that I cannot enjoy here after the innocent jokes cutting by Trump.Now I am relieved and feel very happy and content.I am from India but admire Trump because of his love for his country.Thanks very much Nial.
good article, I like Trump
While this is a good article with valid points, I believe Biden will win. I hope I’m wrong, as I’ll be voting for Trump, but the fact is Trump does not have the advantages he had in 2016. Most importantly, in my opinion, people don’t hate Biden as they did Hillary. A vote for Trump in 2016 was often just a vote for “Anybody but Hillary”.
Also in the the last election, Trump had the good fortune of the FBI opening a criminal investigation against Hillary, just before the election. And this election, Trump does not have the benefit of running as an outsider. He now has a record that is up for debate, and he is a politician now, whether he believes that or not. Yes, the stock market had done very well under Trump, but most people are not actually better off financialy than they were 4 years ago, even before the virus hit. While I do believe the polls are particularly accurate, I don’t think that Trump will be able to close the gap this time around.
…also, which V-shaped recovery are you talking about? Macro numbers and the stock market do not reflect the actual K-shaped recovery the real economy is in; wherein some, the rich, are doing very well while almost everyone else is suffering. Why do you think the stock market is only hanging on on stimulus money news?
Nial, thanks for your analysis. You are on point and I agree with you 100% that Trump will win. I have no doubt about that despite the bad image the media gives him, is the best guy to do the job for now. Forget Biden, he is a coward, and a weak man…
Bet on California turning RED! Major enthusiasm here. We’re at very high risk of displaying Trump support. HUGE Silent Majority! Thank you for supporting/betting our President. Cheers to the new Gold Standard! May the Mafia Media go down in flames!
i hope that Laurie, i’ve been seeing CA rallies very cool! im from MI
I agree with you on previous predictions, but on this one, it is going to be a tight fight.
But i still see Trump winning due to the ‘financial situation’ the Americans are experiencing.
Great research Nial (Master)
Well Nial you present a picture of what is not presented by the main stream media! Thank you for the article, very informative. Good luck to the USA in their choice.
Where can we bet on the election?
I agree with your assessment wholeheartedly Nial. The only possible analysis you missed was the early vote and seniors voting. Not sure what massive early voting tells one? Is Trump losing the senior vote because of CV-19?
Hi Nial, Spot On very good interesting read indeed I think you are backing/betting on the right horse here however the price of the black gold and coal is not in his/their favour right now and the pro movement towards electrification and renewables are putting pressure on the rising heating of mother earth along with a young generation who should be demanding better efforts of their elders abroad and especially the white house so basically the jury is still out in my book it’s a close/dizzy call
All the best and let’s save our planet whichever ‘fuller’ or party wins the office ;-)
Very thorough analysis. Agree. We need this man reelected, followed by Pence in the future. What do you see in the currency markets after the election? Thank you from Texas!
Excellent article Nial can’t agree more with everything you have said. I am 100% with your prediction. good luck.
Agree with your sentiments
Neil you said it/ analyzed it right. Thanks four your insight.
What is your thought about the dollar and American indexes going to perform in the wake of Trump victory?
Sorry to put you on the spot.
Trump wins = Stocks higher
Spot On ! ! Time to scale in ….
Thanks for the info.
So informative. I like this.
Excellent article Nial. Extremely comprehensive and balanced view.
It very much puts the points across objectively and strategically. The reportage is so much easier to understand now after reading this. Its content provides a crystal clear article which is leagues ahead of the skewed news reports we get here from the BBC. I for one are for Trump for many of the reasons you’ve highlighted.
For one he gets things done !
Great article Nial. Even though I’m not an american citizen I wish US keep giant with Trump
Anyways, coming back to Trump, your article bias is totally contrarian to media & the pre-poling predictions I have seen in Media. The research you sighted & their sources are totally foreign to me. Nevertheless, your views indicate a strong bias to the right just as media has a strong bias to the left!
I am from Canada & does not really care which party wins. It could be Trump or it could be Biden, but the US economy will continue to prosper immaterial of who is elected. The stock market & other financial markets (Forex, Futures) does not care who will be elected. Their long term direction will be unaltered. If you win the bet you are a genius! if you lose the bet you lack “bias free assessment” of a situation.
Saman, the point of the article was ‘why Trump will win’ from a contrarians stand point. The core data in the article is real, not opinions. Stock markets do look at company tax rates in the US, and government policies, it matters for sure, your incorrect on that one !
Through out the history US market has performing well irrespective of Republican or Democrat being in power. If any years saw markets moving down they were Democratic ruling. Trump’s era is no different richer getting richer while common man remains common. Looks at the market & trade number – they don’t lie. So, am sure irrespective of Trump or Biden the US market will go on. Neither of them is anti-markets and both know well how to support markets.
Who will win is a different question altogether. Trump might have better odds then Biden. It is however, a reality check that a trump voter you question will not claim to be Trump supporter.
In my view, since last elections in 2016 the US elections had been lost by party who had the weaker candidate then other. It’s no more a game strength.
Nial’s article isn’t an instance of “a strong bias to the right” – it’s simply a reality check. But the US mainstream media – i.e., CNN, all three major network news, the NY Times, and the Washington Post – DOES have a MONSTROUS leftist bias. There have been major not-good-for-Biden news stories that these mainstream news outlets have simply flat out refused to report at all. If CNN were your only news source, you would be completely ignorant of several major news stories that they have never even mentioned because the stories are pro-Trump or anti-Biden.
I don’t have a clue who will win the election, but I do know that the poll information being reported is just insane – polls showing Biden, who, as Nial points out, is basically a weak candidate, winning by ridiculously high margins that no one has ever achieved.
P.S. Nial’s articles on trading strategy are some of the best ever written anywhere on the subject.
I already voted- then drove through several neighborhoods here in North Carolina. I saw a number of Trump signs out, but not one Biden sign. That says something.
You have made my day!!!!!!
Great Analysis and comprehensive write up Nail.
For all the brashness of Trump style and his comments ….Trump is TRUE….He means what he says…and what he says is most of the tine just COMMON SENSE..
His winning is a foregone result.
Enjoyed reading thru your entire post.
Totally agree with both of you, Radha and Nial !
What’s website u placed the bet on ? Im in Aus. I see too many bad reviews on these wagers in aus that dont end up paying out.
Any of the top bookmakers have markets on US elections. I chose a market that pays on the election outcome, not the next sworn in president.
Do you mean you bet for republicans being the winning party?
Interesting. Anywhere in the world people like straightforward leaders like Trump.
Nial, I have been following you since before the Nov 2016 election that Trump won. And the reason you got a 500% return is because you used the price action candlestick formed on November 8th that meant the market had accepted the Trump presidency and would go on a long bull.
You’re saying it’s not common for an incumbent to lose a reelection. Well, George Bush Snr and Jimmy Carter lost and conceded graciously.
Good luck to those who will listen to you on this one, Nial.
I placed wagers on Trump in 2016 before any election outcome was known, it had nothing to do with charts or price action, you are incorrect.
Also, It is not common for incumbent presidents to lose elections, it is more common to see them re-elected.
Nial, I believe you misred Tony’s second point. He was actually pointing out that there are exceptions to the “incumbent rule”. Never did he say or imply that it is common for imcumbents to not be re-elected. Therefore, he cannot be “incorrect” on this point.
Brilliant article based on facts and thorough analysis not fake USA news channels. The problem with society today is that people are to lazy to do their own research and just listen to all the crap produced by the “talking head “ news channels. I experienced socialism in the U.K. in the 70’s trust me USA you don’t need it. Do USA citizens genuinely think America would be what it is today if they adopted socialism, it is a failed ideology around the world.
To quote The great Winston Churchill “ The only benefit of Socialism is that it spreads the misery amongst the masses”
Don’t go there citizens of America.
Thanks for that input, I’m a naturalized US citizen and I mailed my ballot that could help defeat socialism here in the US.
Socialism in the US? It’s obvious you have no clue what Socialism even is.
Very few westerners know what socialism is… In fact, I doubt any one of them do. They should’ve lived under Soviet occupation and then now they’d shut up…
Very good article Nial, thanks! I think also Trump may win but senate can dominate by democrats. Which may lead some kind of caos. Or Trump will win with a very small difference and Democrats won’t want to accept the result. Which is more reason for caotic post- election weeks or even months. I would like to know what you are thinking about post- election events. Many people say it’s not going to be a smooth transition and may lead sharp drop in stock market. I am also thinking the same, considering the tension growing in the States. I’d like to hear your point of view about the subject.
Great Analysis and comprehensive write up Nail.
For all the brashness of Trump style and his comments ….Trump is TRUE….He means what he says…and what he says is most of the tine just COMMON SENSE..
His winning is a foregone result.
Enjoyed reading thru your entire post.
I think you are wide of the mark this time. The major difference to 2016 is that the democratic nominee is not disliked to the extent that Hillary was.
It amazed me how so many people could gloss over Trump’s shortcomings in 2016. His handling of the Covid-19 pandemic could be his undoing this year.
I am not an American (brit) and don’t believe I would vote for Trump if I were
Never the less, I totally agree with Nials analysis (and recall his call in ’16, when he made that 500% ‘trading’ gain) I’d bet (but not more that I could afford to lose) on a Trump victory and to be honest, if I was a US voter, I’d vote for Biden whilst having my money on a Trump win (I doubt that makes any sense to anyone)
Interested bystander, good luck everyone!
I agree with what you said. I will go for trump because he is prolife!
So fundamentally Trump’s win will result in USD bullish or bearish???…. Will USD BUY OR SELL in the event that Trump wins?
Unsure on this, watch the price action :)
Thanks Nial for sharing your research. I would also bet 100% on Trump winning, simply because he is passionate about his country and he has no competition. Biden is extremely boring.
Logical points, I believe as well similarly, Trump 2020!!!
Cheers from a peruvian in Aussie, and btw hopefully this madness can start to vanish after the 3rd Nov, no other state leaves Victorians to cross in,
Go Trump 2020
I also believe Trump is going to win, Americans are not stupid, especially The minorities who are being patronised by the left for soooo many years! A lot people a waking up and falling in love with Trump despite of his big mouth! Anyway am one of them, what he says makes sense But is the words he uses annoys people, but I think a lot people have passed his big mouth and they love him anyways.
I have never seen in my life time a president being bullied and abused emotionally like president trump. Oh my God I don’t know how he cops with all the bullying from the media mob and abuse.
He is a very strong man! God bless Trump!
Hi, you have systematically explained and it was a very well written assessment.. I am not American and I researched Trump when he was running in 2016 and instinctively knew he would win big than and would deliver as promised for the people of America and the world. I also know that America cannot fall as its impact on the world would be devastating..(excluding China, Iran and Russia).
What the Democrats did to Trump these past 4 years has really opened the eyes of Americans and citizen of the world.. Trump to have taken all this in his stride and continued to perform for the citizens of America and the world is truely amazing. I truely believe Trump will win in a BIGGER landslide in 2020 and GOD BLESS AND PROTECT HIM AND HIS FAMILY.
Tradingwise I will take a break…
Thank you for this article and GOD BLESS YOU AND FAMILY.
I turn to agree with you Nial though Trump is not my favorite when it comes to his foreign policies. Given all the analysis, some of which I was not even aware of, he stands to win.
I completely agree about all your comments Mr Nial. Thank you to make your thoughtful ✅
Someone who uses logical thinking and analysis in his daily life has applied it into his writing of this colum, make complete sense…
wow one of the best articles on this subject i have read, Similar to the left wingers saying you’re a racist if you voted for Brexit it just strengthen the vote
Excellent. Could I share this? And how. Thank you.
Politics aside i think Trump’s an idiot!..but Biden is a weak opponent as you mention.
..but in the short term, yes,,,your average American, wants glitz, glamour..and ‘to Make America Great Again’..and with the Pandemic’ they want some way out!
Totally agree about Mainstream Media. I’ve known for years how Biased they are. In the UK we had it all through Brexit’ etc.
I don’t want “trump” to win irrespective of how much money I stand to gain from the market, enough is enough.
Hello!If Trump wins what will happen to the dollar?
Couldn’t agree more. Many Americans forget that USA is #1 world power. President of USA is like king of the world. POTUS is also KOW (King of the world). KOW must have good understanding of geopolitics. Biden lacks that, Kamala Harris has no clue. Trump understand the world much better. He wants to retain USA’s #1 position. Biden comes across as weak
I hardly find the time to leave comments these days. I had to in this case though. I think you’re living in a different planet. Maybe you’re a fan but wishing it happens doesn’t and will not make it happen.
I think you should have kept this bet to yourself. It appears to be a delusional move. You’ve lost already.
Why should I have kept this to myself? I share my ideas and thoughts with my readers. If you don’t like Trump, that’s fine, but many of our readers do like him. Statistics are statistics and research is research. But yes, I could be wrong.
I will bet a beer against you Nial next time your on Perth.
Reason,( My wife told me)
It’s not that I don’t like Trump, as you said statistics are statistics, the odds are against him and for obvious reasons too. I have no love or hate for Trump, but looking at his campaign objectively, it is clear that this is no 2016 repeat. He had his chance to create a lasting impression and I’m afraid he blew it. That’s my opinion of course. I will leave a message here on November 4th if there’s a result. Hopefully there’ll be a clear winner.
How sleepy Jo could win that election, tell me …
Great, good luck
Please how did you bet on this?
If your outside of USA, you can use any Sports betting website. If inside USA you could consider PredictIt.org, or google some other options.
I used Betfair in the UK, a betting exchange – has an advantage in that you can cash out your bet at any time before the event takes place(maybe a news event might make you do that).