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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Dot blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – September 24th to 28th, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily chart time-frames unless marked otherwise.
EURUSD – Huge short covering rally unfolds after false break of 1.1535, we continue to buy the dips.
Summary: Several weeks ago, price recently broke down below 1.1535 but quickly reversed higher, triggering a massive short covering rally. This has created a massive bullish fakey + pin bar on the monthly chart, a very bullish sign.
The market has surged above 1.1750 resistance, in line with our bullish view over the past few weeks. We continue to favour buying weakness whilst price is firmly above 1.1535 support, targeting a move into 1.1750 to 1.1820.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider buying on any dips whilst price remains above 1.1535 support, or wait for a price action buy signal to confirm an entry above 1.1535.
GBPUSD – Looking for buy signals within the 1.2820 to 1.3020 support region.
Summary: Overhead key resistance levels at 1.3200 and 1.3295 and support at 1.2820 and 1.3020.
The Inside bar break out that has remained active since 2 weeks ago, has taken prices up into the major target level we discussed at 1.3295. Prior trade idea noted: ” Inside bar setup from last week has triggered, targeting a move into 1.3200 and 1.3295.”
In our last update we said “Expect some resistance here before a potentially larger move higher. Support now sits firmly at 1.3020”. We can see prices have now sold off from those overhead levels near 1.3295, back down into major support areas.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider buying on any dip around the 1.2820 to 1.3020 support area, or wait for another price action signal to confirm an entry.
AUDUSD – Waiting for a sell signal under the 0.7470 major resistance level.
Summary: Long term down trend remains in tact with nearby resistance at 0.7470 and 0.7320.
It’s likely prices will continue to experience sell pressure from the overhead resistance zone.
Waiting for next sell signal from higher prices around the resistance between 0.7320 to 0.7470. Expect the market to be contained under the 0.7470 major resistance.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on a price action signal that forms within the support range between 0.7320 to 0.7470.
GOLD – Downside risk under the $1215 resistance level.
Summary: Down trend remains in tact with nearby resistance at $1205 – $1215 zone and $1237 level.
Price remains contained under $1205 to $1215, and we can see a bearish rejection of this area late last week. Whilst below this resistance, there is downside risk back towards $1150-60 area.
Gold is still contained under $1215 resistance, the recent bearish tailed bar signal remains valid, until a break and close above this level, the short term bias remains bearish. We note however, that a break above $1215 could see a move into major resistance at $1237.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any strength whilst price is below the $1215 resistance area, targeting a move back into $1150-60 area. A move and close above $1215 voids any shorts.
CRUDE OIL – Still bullish above the $66.20 support level, but price needs to clear the $71.30 level to move substantially higher.
Summary: With major support at the $64.20 to $66.20-80 range still holding firmly, the bias still remains bullish overall. Buying on any dips continues to be the strategy whilst support holds.
Oil remains bullish but is struggling at $71.30 area as we had seen previously. We continue to favour buying on any weakness provided the support at $66.20-80 area holds. This has worked well over the past few weeks. The market could track into $74.93 if we clear $71.30 on a closing basis.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider buying on any price weakness whilst above the support at $66.20-80, or wait for a price action buy signal above this level on the daily time frame. Targeting a move into $74.93
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