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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Don’t blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – November 19th to 23rd, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily candlestick charts unless marked otherwise.
EURUSD – Selling on strength whilst price is contained under 1.1535 to 1.1615 resistance.
Summary: Price has now broken below both 1.1615 and 1.1535 support zones, activating a bearish leg lower. Price remains contained under the 1.1535 to 1.1615 resistance area and thus we continue to prefer selling short on strength whilst that resistance range holds firm.
The bias remains bearish under 1.1535 to 1.1615 resistance, we continue to prefer selling on any pockets of strength.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any short term strength whilst price is below the 1.1535 to 1.1615 key resistance area. Targeting a move to 1.1298 and potentially lower.
USDJPY – The 112.05 support level marks the line in the sand for bulls this week.
Summary: The market is grinding higher after forming a base around 112.05 support, likely targeting a move back towards the old high around 114.50’s
As per our recent updates, we still prefer to buy on any dips whilst price is atop 112.05 major support, or on a clear buy signal. The upside targets remain 114.50 or potentially higher.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider buying on the dips whilst prices are above the 112.05 support area or on a price action buy signal, targeting a move back to 114.50’s (recent highs).
GOLD (Spot Gold) – Price reconnects back above the $1205 level and could challenge $1237 again this week.
Summary: Price has recently faded back from $1237 resistance, into the $1205 support area.
Price had initially failed $1205 but has reconnected back above that level late last week. We will watch the market as price action develops, and keep and eye out for a clear buy signal between $1205 to $1215.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider waiting for a very clear bullish price action signal within the $1205 to $1215 support area, targeting a move back to $1237 and possibly $1265.
S&P 500 USA – Expecting a bounce back into the 2790 resistance area before price reverses lower again.
Summary: Bearish bias activates as support at 2690 fails. Major resistance at 2790 to 2860 area. Major support sits at 2650-90 area and 2550. From here it’s likely the market will remain volatile so we can play both sides of the market.
Price fades back aggressively from 2790 earlier in the week and we have found a short term bottom (tailed bar at 2690 level), and could stage a bounce over the next few days. We still prefer selling short on any pockets of strength whilst prices are contained below the 2790 to 2860 resistance area. Targeting 2600-2650 initially.
Potential Trade Idea: Traders can consider selling short on a clear sell signal on the 4 hour or daily chart, whilst price remains contained below the 2790 to 2860 resistance area. Targeting a move back to 2600-2650 area.
NOTE – We suggest traders avoid holding long positions (buys) over the weekend.
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