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Chart Commentary Disclaimer: Nial’s views on the Charts is not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest, it is educational and general information only. Dot blindly buy and sell the markets/products discussed in this newsletter, do your own research and be aware of the risks and rewards.
Weekly Forex Trade Ideas & Chart Analysis by Nial Fuller – October 8th to 12th, 2018
TECHNICAL PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS:
All charts illustrated are daily chart time-frames unless marked otherwise.
EURUSD – Collapses below support, trend turns bearish.
Technical Summary: The EURUSD has stalled at 1.1800 resistance and collapsed back below 1.1525 support in spectacular fashion.
The technical collapse back below both 1.1615 and 1.1535 support zones has activated a short term bearish leg lower which could open the door for a larger move down toward the recent lows near 1.1298.
Potential Trade Idea: We are standing aside until we see a price action pattern to confirm an entry.
We will notify members about any potential trade setups in the members trade ideas newsletter this week.
AUDUSD – Pin Bar reversal sends prices to fresh multi year lows.
Technical Summary: Long term down trend remains in tact with nearby resistance at 0.7470 and 0.7320. We expect the market to be contained under the 0.7470 major resistance.
Prior comments from members newsletter: ” A bearish pin bar reversal forms below 0.7320 resistance last week. We continue favour selling on any strength whilst prices remain below the high of the pin bars upper tail.”
Over the past 2 weeks, the market has continued lower from the daily pin bar discussed in prior comments, recently breaking back below prior lows at the 0.7080 level. We continue to see any strength / bounce as a selling opportunity as prices look to be tracking lower with strong momentum.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any strength whilst price is contained below the 0.7207 to 0.7320 short term resistance area, or wait for another price action sell signal on 4 hour or daily chart to confirm an entry. We will notify members about any potential trade setups in the members trade ideas newsletter this week.
GOLD (Spot Gold) – Bearish whilst contained below $1215 usd/oz resistance level.
Technical Summary: Down trend remains in tact with nearby resistance at $1205 – $1215 zone and $1237 level.
Prior comments from members newsletter: “Price remains contained under $1205 to $1215, and we can see a bearish rejection of this area over the last few weeks”. “Multiple inside bars have formed on daily chart, if this inside bar structure breaks down, expect a significant move down again”.
The inside bar structure that broke down recently remains in tact, and price is still contained under the $1215 resistance level. We prefer to be sellers just under or at that level, either blindly or with a price action signal to confirm a sell entry.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider selling short on any strength, whilst price is below the $1215 resistance area, targeting a move back into $1150-60 area. A move and close above $1215 voids any shorts. We will notify members about any potential trade setups in the members trade ideas newsletter this week.
CRUDE OIL (WTI Futures) – Bullish whilst contained above $70.30 support level.
Technical Summary: Price has broken out strongly last week, closing above the $71.30 major resistance level. This activates a long term move targeting the resistance at $74.93.
Prior comments from members newsletter: “Last week we noted multiple inside bars on daily chart and suggested an upside break out was possible. On Friday we saw the market break higher from this inside bar structure aggressively. We continue to favour buying on price dips whilst the support range at $70.30 to $71.30 holds.”
Price has subsequently surged much higher after breaking the multiple inside bar pattern discussed last week and has moved through the target area of $74.93. We continue to favour buying on price dips whilst the support range at $70.30 to $71.30 holds.
Potential Trade Idea: Consider buying on any price weakness around the $70.30 to $71.30 support range, or wait for a price action buy signal whilst we are above this major support area on the daily time frame. Targeting a move back into $74.93 and beyond. We will notify members about any potential trade setups in the members trade ideas newsletter this week.
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