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EURUSD Holds Support Level

Posted on November 18th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | No Comments

Daily Market Commentary: 11-17-2009

On wall street today stocks rose to a fresh 13-month high as upbeat broker views on improving prospects for two Dow components offset disappointing holiday spending outlooks from Target and Home Depot. The Dow closed up 30.46 points, or .29 percent, to end at 10,437.42. The Dow was down about 45 points at the morning low in New York. Oil prices rebounded from a morning sell-off to post a slight gain.

Gold futures squeezed in some small gains by the close of trading Tuesday, with the front-month contract ending at a record high, supported by a purchase of gold by the central bank of Mauritius and as mixed U.S. economic data failed to give much of a lift to the dollar.

The dollar gained on most major currencies over night in London, however by the New York close much of these gains were lost as major support and resistance levels held strong. The dollar is currently hovering near 15-month lows.

We can see EUR/USD bounced off the 1.4820 level here on the 4hr chart. A possible run at 1.5050 is possible in the near term.

1258494477-clip-12kb

Tomorrow’s important economic events:

Wednesday’s relevant forex events include a speech by ECB president Trichet at 3:40 am EST which could give some insight into up coming euro-zone interest rate movements.

At 4:30 am EST we have the Bank of England MPC (monetary policy committee) minutes coming out. This report can sometimes move the currency markets based on its insight into interest rate policy.
At 7:00 am EST we have core CPI coming out of Canada. The consumer price index measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This report tells us a lot about overall inflation in the economy. Rising prices tend to lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
At 8:30 am EST we have building permits coming out of the U.S. . This report is a good gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a building permit is among the first steps in building a new structure.
Also at 8:30 am EST we have core CPI coming out of the U.S.

Good Trading

Nial Fuller

Daily Forex Commentary – EURUSD set to rally

Posted on November 17th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | No Comments

Daily Commentary:

Monday saw the dollar lose more ground to all major currencies. Retail sales in the U.S. rebounded in October; this led to a jump on Wall Street as investors reacted to the positive news. Retail sales is an important economic indicator because the U.S. consumer is vital to the overall health of the world economy.

Fed chairmen Bernanke reaffirmed in a speech today that the central bank would hold interest rates at record-low levels for an “extended period”, giving a further boost to stocks and weakening the dollar. Gold hit a new record high on the back of a sinking dollar, oil and other commodities were higher as well. All of the major dollar pairs are nearing significant support or resistance levels. Given the overall economic picture leaning towards a continuing weak dollar, current forex trends are expected to continue.
The euro has been in an uptrend against the dollar for quite sometime, given the current economic forecast this uptrend is expected to continue, however a decisive close above 1.5050 would be necessary to confirm this.

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Tomorrow’s important economic events are as follows:

Swiss retail sales: This report is the primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It comes out at 3:15 am EST

British CPI: Consumer price index is an important measure of inflation as it accounts for the majority of overall inflation. It comes out at 4:30 am EST

U.S. PPI: The producer price index report is leading indicator for consumer inflation; higher producer prices are usually passed on to the consumer. It comes out at 8:30 am EST

U.S. TIC long-term purchases: Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities. This report represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment. It comes out at 9:00 am EST

Good Trading

Nial Fuller – Learn To Trade The Market

GBPUSD Key resistance level approaches

Posted on November 8th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | No Comments

GBPUSD – British Pound Vs US Dollar – Cable Outlook

This week, the GBPUSD is seen rallying strongly, momentarily about to collide with long term resistance at the 16741 level.
The short term outlook would be “sell short” from resistance, so trader can be weatching for intraday reversal signals from that area of the chart,
or even consider selling at the level. Until this pair can aggrsively close atop 16741 on the daily chart , it looks very possible that Cable will meet with sell pressure at the
higher side of this range.

GBPJPY Fx Reversal Signals – Ready for falls?

Posted on October 28th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | 2 Comments

GBPJPY Fx Reversal Signals – Ready for falls?

A quick note on the GBPJPY forex pair outlook.

Price has reached the 15300 level and rejected, confirming a strong sell signal / reversal pattern.

Logical price action laws suggest this is the termination of the most recent recovery and as long as prices remain under 15300 resistance, the market has a solid chance of now selling off back into lower levels, closer to 14800 and then 14480.  Its not a certaintiy, but we may actually see this pair rotate all the way back down into 14000 levels once again, as this is the most recent low, and would be a logical target.

The GBPJPY pair is notorious for its volatility, so watch it closely, and favor the sellers under 15300 in the near term. see price chart below.

AUDUSD, Australian Dollar, NZDUSD New Zealand Dollar

Posted on September 26th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | No Comments

AUDUSD and NZDUSD commentary, Ready for a correction ?

This past 7 days, I have seen some serious termination signals on the AUDUSD, ( Australian Vs  US Dollar ), NZDUSD (New Zealand Vs  US Dollar), its not a forgone conclusion that price will now plumet and make  a correction to the downside, but in all likleyhood these currency pairs have formed a short term high and are due for at least a consolidation.

This past 7 days, I have seen some serious termination signals on the AUDUSD, ( Australian Vs  US Dollar ), NZDUSD (New Zealand Vs  US Dollar), its not a forgone conclusion that price will now plumet and make  a correction to the downside, but in all likleyhood these currency pairs have formed a short term high and are due for at least a consolidation.

There is upper tails on the weekly candlestick chart , (see chart below) which signals upper price rejection, a typically bearish technical signal.

I see these pair as stil uptrending in the broader term, but in the short term, we may start to see prices take a breather and correct back into the previous key  support levels.

The AUDUSD could rotate back into 83 US cents, and NZDUSD back into 69 US cents respectively.

See Chart Examples Below 

kiwiandaussiedollar

The above Commentary is not financial advice and any views expressed are personal views only, you trade at your own risk..

GBPUSD, Cable Throws in a Pin Bar Sell Signal

Posted on September 24th, 2009 | by | in Forex Trading Commentary | 2 Comments

The GBPUSD , Cable, Great British Pound vs US Dollar has formed yet another sell signal after the FOMC last night.
We cant help but feel that there is further Falls to come here on the Cable, given the prevailing trend is down and the degree of severe sell pressure we have seen over the last 2 weeks. The overnight pin bar reversal candlestick signal formed at the logical resistance level near 16420, and forms a confluent short trigger. the target is 16120’s and then 15990’s

cablechart

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