Daily Forex Market Commentary

The U.S. dollar was weaker today against the euro, pound, Swiss franc, and Cad. dollar. The greenback gained ground on the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and slightly on the Kiwi dollar.

A very poor Australian retail sales report and Australian building approvals report late yesterday has caused the AUDUSD to maintain a bearish tone and unable to break past resistance near 0.9200.

Looking ahead, the currency markets are closed in many countries for the Good Friday and Passover holidays, the U.S. markets will be open however and releasing the monthly employment report which is expected to show a sharp increasing in U.S. employment.

Stocks:

On Wall Street today stocks lost ground as a report showing a surprise drop in private-sector employment stoked concerns about the health of the job market two days before the government’s significant employment report.

The Dow closed 50.79 points lower, or 0.47 percent, the S&P closed 3.84 points lower, or 0.33 percent, and the Nasdaq closed 12.73 points lower or 0.53 percent.

Currency pair in focus: EUR/USD

Today we are looking at the EURUSD 4 hour chart and analyzing the bullish fakey setup that formed overnight. Notice how once the fakey bar formed the market took off upwards into the next resistance zone around 1.3540.

This was a classic example of a good 4 hour fakey setup that provided a risk to reward ratio of at least 1:2. These are the types of setups we trade here at learn to trade the market and the types of strategies you will find in our comprehensive forex price action trading course.

Update: USD/JPY bullish fakey setup

The USDJPY inside bar setup that we posted in the commentary on Monday resulted in a bullish fakey setup that has come off the upside today. We noted in the commentary on Monday that the pair was exhibiting bullish momentum and we would prefer to be buyers pending a bullish price action setup.

Update: GBP/JPY 4 hour bearish pin bar

Note the bearish pin bar setup from yesterday’s commentary resulted in a loss, as noted in the commentary this was a more speculative setup because it was counter-trend. This is why we generally advise traders to trade with the dominant momentum. In this case, the momentum was definitely bullish. Notice how after the upper tail of the pin bar was violated this area became support once the market sold back down to it.

For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.