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Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has fallen significantly lower recently, slicing right through support at 1.6060 and at 1.6000. We can see the daily 8 / 21 EMAs have recently crossed lower and traders can look to sell this market on retraces back to the dynamic 8 / 21 EMA resistance layer or near 1.6000 resistance, pending confirmation from a price action trading sell signal. Note key support is seen near 1.5800.
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Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the U.S. dollar moved higher against most other majors on the back of more worries that Greece will drop the euro.
The U.S. dollar index has risen 3.4% since April 30th and moved to a 4-month high today.
The British pound was considerably weaker against the greenback today, dropping to $1.5909 from $1.5991.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks lost ground again on the back of more negative news out of Greece as well as pessimistic minutes from April’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The Dow lost 33.45 points, or 0.26 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 5.86 points, or 0.44 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 19.72 points, or 0.68 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/17/2012
8:30am EST: United States – Unemployment Claims
10:00am EST: United States – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
EURUSD
The EURUSD inside bar setup that we first discussed last Thursday has seen price fall significantly lower again today. This setup has now provided a very nice gain for many of our members and we’ve been discussing it widely in the forum since it first formed last week. This market could move down to re-test the key 1.2625 support before making a significant retrace higher, but given that we have had a significant down move off this setup its best to lock in or take our profits and sit tight from the sidelines to see what develops in the near-term. We can still look to sell this market on retraces back up to the 8 / 21 day EMA resistance layer, pending price action confirmation.
Check out my latest trading lesson: How To Increase The Probability Of Your Forex Trades
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro dropped to a four-month low against the U.S. dollar on the back of more uncertainty about Greece’s future in the euro-zone.
Gold dropped to a 4.5 month low today.
The U.S. dollar was today’s big winner, gaining against all the other majors including the Japanese yen on the back of positive U.S. economic data. The dollar index moved to a 4-month high today.
The Australian dollar dropped to a 5-month low against the U.S. dollar on the back of minutes from the latest RBA meeting.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks lost ground for the third day in a row after more uncertainty about whether or not Greece will leave the euro.
The Dow lost 63.35 points, or 0.50 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 7.69 points, or 0.57 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 8.82 points, or 0.30 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/16/2012
4:30am EST: Britain – Claimant Count Change
5:30am EST: Britain – BOE Gov King Speaks
5:30am EST: Britain – BOE Inflation Report
8:30am EST: United States – Building Permits
2:00pm EST: United States – FOMC Meeting Minutes
6:45pm EST: New Zealand – PPI Input q/q
7:50pm EST: Japan – Prelim GDP q/q
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
EURUSD
The EURUSD inside bar setup that we first discussed in last Thursday’s commentary, has broken out significantly lower today, extending the recent bearish momentum. For those of you who missed this inside bar trading strategy, you can still look to sell the market on a retrace back towards the 8 / 21 daily EMA layer, pending price action confirmation. Key support is not seen until about 1.2625.
Check out my latest trading lesson: How To Increase The Probability Of Your Forex Trades
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost ground against the dollar and dropped to almost a 4-month low on worries that Greece might leave the euro-zone and poor economic data that showed a recession is on the horizon for Europe.
The Australian dollar dropped to a five-month low against the greenback on the back of concerns about slowing Chinese growth. The New Zealand and Canadian dollars were also down significantly against the U.S. dollar today.
The U.S. dollar index gained ground for the fifth consecutive session today, moving to a two-month high of 80.69.
The Japanese yen was the only major to gain on the greenback today, as the yen surged across the board as traders flocked to safe-haven currencies.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks sunk as investors grew concerned about Greece exiting the euro-zone. The Dow lost ground for the eigth trading session out of the last nine.
The Dow closed 125.25 points lower, or 1%, the S&P 500 dropped 19.64 points, or 1.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 31.24 points, or 1.1%
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/15/2012
5:00am EST: Euro-zone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30am EST: United States – Core CPI m/m
8:30am EST: United States – Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am EST: United States – Retail Sales m/m
Weekly Forex Chart Price Action Outlook for May 14th – May 18th 2012
EURUSD
The EURUSD inside bar setup that we discussed in Thursday’s commentary broke slightly lower on Friday. This week, we could see price continue lower as price finally broke and closed outside of its recent 3-month old trading range last week, injecting fresh bearish momentum into the market. If price rotates higher we can watch key resistance near 1.3000 for potential price action trading sell signals. The market may also continue falling at this week’s open from Friday’s close as the week ended near the lows on a very bearish note.
AUDUSD
We are taking a look at the weekly chart of the AUDUSD this week to get a clearer view of where the next key support level is coming in since the market has fallen so fast over the last two weeks. Note the key level coming in near 0.9920, price will likely find some support there if we move into that level this week. We are still bearish on this market and traders can look to sell on rotations higher into resistance pending price action confirmation.
GBPJPY
The GBPJPY closed lower for the third week in a row last week, losing ground on Friday after forming an inside bar strategy in the process. If this inside bar setup breaks lower we could see a move to re-test the key 127.00 support level this week. Otherwise, we could see consolidation or perhaps a rotation higher into the 8 / 21 day EMA resistance layer or the key 130.20 resistance level; in either case we would watch closely for price action sell signals.
XAUUSD
The spot gold market ended this week significantly lower over last, and we can see price finally broke and closed below the key $1625.00 level this week. This level has now flipped from key support to key resistance. Near-term support is seen near $1560.00 with longer-term key support near $1522.00. Traders can look to sell this market on rotations into resistance pending price action confirmation.
Check out my latest trading lesson: How To Increase The Probability Of Your Forex Trades
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
GBPJPY
The GBPJPY formed an inside bar trading strategy today just under the 8 / 21 day EMA dynamic resistance layer. If price breaks down past the mother bar low next week we could see an extension of the recent down move and a re-test of the key support at 127.00. Note that the previous pin bar setup from May 2nd has provided a nice gain for savvy price action traders.
Check out my latest trading lesson: How To Increase The Probability Of Your Forex Trades
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost ground again to the U.S. dollar on the back of more political uncertainty in Greece. Big losses by U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase also worked to fuel investor’s desire for safe-currencies like the greenback and yen.
U.S. consumer confidence moved to more than 4-year high today, this worked to lift the dollar against the Japanese yen and most other majors today.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks ended modestly lower after gains in technology companies worked to offset losses in U.S. bank shares.
The Dow lost 34.44 points, or 0.27 percent, the S&P 500 lost 4.60 points, or 0.34 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.18 points, or 0.01 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/13/2012
6:45pm EST: New Zealand – Core Retail Sales q/q
5/14/2012
11:45am EST: Switzerland – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
9:30pm EST: Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Price action trading strategies can be very potent ‘weapons’ to trade the markets with. We just have to learn to use them correctly and accurately. Most of us have a limited supply of bullets (money), so we have to make each bullet count and not waste them on low-probability targets (stupid trades).
Continue Reading How To Increase The Winning Probability Of Your Forex TradesTrading Setups / Chart in Focus:
EURUSD
The EURUSD consolidated and formed an inside bar trading strategy today. The market tried to rally early in today’s session but fell lower after finding resistance just below the key 1.3000 level. If price breaks down below the low of yesterday’s mother bar low, we could see an extension of the recent negative momentum in this market. There’s a near-term support seen near 1.2860, but beyond that key support is not seen until 1.2625. Should price rotate higher into tomorrow, we would watch resistance at 1.3000 and the 8 day EMA for potential price action sell signals, thus we are only looking for sell signals in this market at this time.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the U.S. dollar was mostly lower against the other majors as the recent greenback rally took a breather.
The EURUSD and GBPUSD were up modestly about 1 hour before the NY close, as were the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Meanwhile, the greenback was higher against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while showing a modest loss to the Canadian dollar.
The Japanese yen was weaker against the other majors today as risk appetite returned and traders dumped the safe-haven yen.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks were mostly higher just before the New York close as investors bought up over-sold shares. However, tech giant Cisco Systems posted a disappointing outlook which worked to cap gains.
About 1 hour before the NY close, the Dow was up 56.23 points, or 0.44 percent, the S&P 500 gained 7.80 points, or 0.58 percent, and the Nasdaq added 4.82 points, or 0.16 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/11/2012
4:30am EST: Britain – PPI Input m/m
8:30am EST: Canada – Employment Change
8:30am EST: Canada – Unemployment Rate
8:30am EST: United States – PPI m/m
9:55am EST: United States – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
EURUSD
The EURUSD finally broke and closed outside of its 3-month trading range today, we would expect lower prices in the near-term as the breakout of this trading range should inject fresh selling pressure into the market. Traders can look to sell the market on rotations back up to the key 1.3000 breakdown level or in the 8 / 21 day EMA resistance layer, pending price action confirmation.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro fell against the dollar again and broke out of its 3-month trading range, making a fresh 3.5 month low for the day at $1.2910. Concerns about political turmoil in Greece and fears about weakness in Spanish banks are working to inject fresh fear into the market about the euro-zone debt crisis.
The Japanese yen was today’s big winner, gaining against all the other majors including the U.S. dollar, as investors dumped just about everything, including gold and silver.
The greenback and yen were clearly the two big currency winners today as safe-haven buying was the theme.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks lost ground again after fears about the weakness in Spanish banks and political upheaval in Greece worked to fuel concerns about euro-zone debt problems. U.S. and German government debt rose, also adding to the sell-off in equities and riskier assets today.
The Dow lost 97.03 points, or 0.75 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 9.14 points, or 0.67 percent, and the Nasdaq shed 11.56 points, or 0.39 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/10/2012
Tentative: China – Trade Balance
4:30am EST: Britain – Manufacturing Production m/m
7:00am EST: Britain – Asset Purchase Facility
7:00am EST: Britain – Official Bank Rate
Tentative: Britain – MPC Rate Statement
8:30am EST: Canada – Trade Balance
8:30am EST: United States – Trade Balance
8:30am EST: United States – Unemployment Claims
9:30am EST: United States – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:30pm EST: China – CPI y/y
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
Spot Gold
The spot gold market fell dramatically lower today after the inside bar strategy from yesterday broke lower. Price also broke and closed below the key $1625.00 support level, opening up the door for a re-test of the long-term support near $1522.00. Traders can look to sell on rotations back up to the key breakdown level / resistance near $1625.00, pending intra-day or daily price action confirmation.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost ground to the U.S. dollar again, on the back of concerns that changes in Greek and French leadership could lead to more economic instability in the euro-zone.
The EURUSD dipped below the key $1.3000 support level, closing the day slightly above it at $1.3003.
The U.S. dollar was stronger against most other majors today, except for a slight loss to the Japanese yen.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks moved lower early in the session on the back of more news out of Greece that worked to fuel concerns about the strength of the euro-zone economy. Stocks cut losses into the close however, ending the day up off the lows.
The Dow lost 76.44 points, or 0.59 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 5.86 points, or 0.43 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 11.49 points, or 0.39 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/9/2012
7:50pm EST: Japan – Current Account
9:30pm EST: Australia – Employment Change
9:30pm EST: Australia – Unemployment Rate
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
EURUSD
The EURUSD opened this week with a huge gap down but then pared losses into the New York close forming a bullish pin bar off key 1.3000 support. We could see a pop higher off this pin bar strategy as the next key resistance is not seen until about 1.3200. However, the ideal scenario would be to wait and watch for a 4 hour price action sell signal after the week-opening gap fills up near 1.3090 – 1.3100 resistance.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost ground to the other majors after weekend elections in Greece and France fueled concerns about European debt problems.
The EURUSD pared losses into the New York close and ended the day well off its lows, forming a bullish pin bar off 1.3000 support.
The GBPUSD gained significant ground today as the British pound is benefitting from the weakness in the euro.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks ended the day mixed on the back of unease about results from the weekend’s results from Greek and French elections.
The Dow dropped 29.74 points, or 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.48 points, or 0.04%, and the Nasdaq added 1.42 points, or 0.1%
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/8/2012
5:30am EST: Australia – Annual Budget Release
5:00pm EST: New Zealand – RBNZ Financial Stability Report
Weekly Forex Chart Price Action Outlook for May 7th – May 11th 2012
EURUSD
The EURUSD fell lower into the end of last week after a fakey trading strategy formed on Tuesday. We can see price easily sliced through the key support level at 1.3200 and ended the week significantly lower at 1.3082. This week, we could see consolidation in the near-term, however if the bearish momentum continues a re-test of key support at 1.3000 would not be surprising. The key levels to watch for PA signals are 1.3200 and 1.3000, traders can look to trade the range from those levels, while making sure only to consider trading obvious 4 hour or daily chart time frame signals since there is no obvious trend here.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD lost ground everyday last week, and we can see price ended the week near the the lows. If price continues to retrace lower this week, we will watch support from the 21 day EMA to about 1.6000 for potential price action buy signals to rejoin the uptrend.
GBPJPY
In our commentary from last Thursday, we discussed the potential for the GBPJPY to move lower off the bearish pin bars that had formed on the daily chart. On Friday, price dropped significantly lower and closed below the near-term support at 129.00. We discussed the pin bar trading strategy from last Wednesday in our members’ forum well before it came off, and some of our member’s entered on Thursday on a 50% retrace of Wednesday’s pin bar and have already netted a 1:2 or more winner as a result. This week, we could see price fall further as there’s no significant support until about 127.00, while noting that a retrace higher is possible first.
NZDUSD
The NZDUSD finally broke and closed outside of its 2-month old trading range last week. Now we have a clear bearish bias and can look to sell any rallies into resistance, pending price action confirmation.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
GBPJPY
The GBPJPY bearish pin bar strategy and inside pin bar setup that we discussed in yesterday’s commentary has resulted in a significant move to the downside today. Considering NFP was released today, this was somewhat of a “gutsy” call, but we simply read the price action on the chart and acted accordingly, uninfluenced by today’s big news release.
Many of our members took this trade and we can see it’s now into a nice profit. After our previous GBPJPY long call from last week that ended up being a “fizzer”, we can see we now have a potential 1:2 or more winner on our hands. It goes to show through the power of risk to reward we can make more than we lose by simply being patient and trading from the daily chart time frame.
We see potential for more downside next week with key support not seen until about 127.00.
NZDUSD
The NZDUSD dropped further away from its recent trading range today. If price retraces early next week, we will watch 0.8055 resistance and the 8 / 21 day EMA dynamic resistance layer to re-join the negative momentum in this market now.
Check out my latest trading lesson: Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your Life
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the U.S. dollar lost ground to the Japanese yen but rallied against the other majors today as worries about global growth resumed.
The U.S. April jobs report came in weaker than expected, combined with disappointing economic news from Europe caused traders and investors to ditch higher-yielding assets in favor of safe havens.
The Japanese yen was today’s big winner as risk appetite fell. The greenback was significantly higher against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, as these currencies are closely linked to global growth.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks lost ground on the back of a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report and pessimistic data out of the euro-zone.
The Dow lost 168.32 points, or 1.27 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 22.47 points, or 1.61 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 67.96 points, or 2.25 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/6/2012
All day: Euro-zone – French Presidential Election
All day: Euro-zone – Greek Parliamentary Election
9:30pm EST: Australia – Building Approvals m/m
9:30pm EST: Australia – Retail Sales m/m
5/7/2012
3:00am EST: Switzerland – Foreign Currency Reserves
3:15am EST: Switzerland – CPI m/m
8:30am EST: Canada – Building Permits m/m
9:30pm EST: Australia – Trade Balance
Here is a list of 17 daily trading affirmations that you can incorporate into your trading plan and that you should read to yourself every day before trading. Doing this will work to keep you motivated to practice proper trading habits and generally stay on the path to Forex trading success:
Continue Reading Daily Affirmations Will Improve Your Trading & Your LifeTrading Setups / Chart in Focus:
GBPJPY
The GBPJPY has formed an inside pin bar strategy within the range of yesterday’s pin bar. Both setups are showing rejection of the 130.20 resistance level as well as the 8 / 21 daily EMA resistance layer. If price breaks lower from these pin bars, we could see a move lower towards the next key support near 127.00, whereas a violation of the high of Wednesday’s pin bar would likely mean higher prices are in store.
Check out my latest trading lesson: 5 Mistakes Preventing You From Making Money Trading
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost ground to the U.S. dollar for the third consecutive day on the back of comments from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.
The euro hit a two-week low of $1.3094 against the dollar but recovered to $1.3151 into the NY close.
The greenback was higher against all the other major currencies today.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks lost ground on the back of mixed economic signals one day before the critical April Non-Farm Employment change report.
The Dow lost 61.98 points, or 0.47 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 10.74 points, or 0.77 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 35.55 points, or 1.16 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/4/2012
3:15am EST: Switzerland – Retail Sales y/y
8:30am EST: United States – Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30am EST: United States – Unemployment Rate
10:00am EST: Canada – Ivey PMI
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has had a nice rally recently but is a bit extended here and thus we see potential for a deeper rotation to the downside. If that happens, we can anticipate a 4 hour or daily chart signal by watching the key support area between 1.6060 and 1.6000 for potential forex price action buy signals to re-join the recent upward momentum.
Check out my latest trading lesson: 5 Mistakes Preventing You From Making Money Trading
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro lost significant ground to the U.S. dollar after poor U.S. and euro-zone economic data worked to increase concerns about the global economy.
The EURUSD lost about 0.6 percent and ended the day at $1.3157.
The greenback gained ground against the Japanese yen, but ended the day only slightly higher as prices pared gains and formed a bearish pin bar into the New York close.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks moved lower on the back of data that showed U.S. hiring dropped more than expected in the private sector for the month of April.
The Dow fell 10.75 points, or 0.08 percent, the S&P 500 lost 3.52 points, or 0.25 percent, and the Nasdaq added 9.41 points, or 0.31 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/3/2012
4:30am EST: Britain – Services PMI
7:45am EST: Euro-zone – Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am EST: Euro-zone – ECB Press Conference
8:30am EST: United States – Unemployment Claims
10:00am EST: United States – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
9:30pm EST: Australia – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD lost significant ground today after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of the 25 point cut that was widely expected. We can see price is currently trading in a range between 1.0450 and about 1.0300. If price cannot sustain itself above 1.0300 we could see a resumption of the downtrend, otherwise we could see more consolidation within this trading range.
Check out my latest trading lesson: 5 Mistakes Preventing You From Making Money Trading
May Special Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the U.S. dollar gained modest ground on the Japanese yen and slight ground on the euro on the back of positive U.S. manufacturing data.
The Australian dollar lost significant ground to the greenback today after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 50 basis points; the market was widely expecting only a 25 point cut.
The U.S. dollar was stronger against most of the other majors today, except the Canadian dollar which it lost slight ground to.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data worked to ease fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down and injected energy into the recent rally in stocks, pushing the Dow to close at its highest level in over four years.
The Dow added 65.69 points, or 0.50 percent, the S&P 500 gained 7.91 points, or 0.57 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 4.08 points, or 0.13 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/2/2012
3:15am EST: Switzerland – Retail Sales y/y
4:30am EST: Britain – Construction PMI
8:15am EST: United States – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
6:45pm EST: New Zealand – Employment Change q/q
6:45pm EST: New Zealand – Unemployment Rate
Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
USDJPY
The USDJPY fell lower again today and price has sliced right through the support near 80.30 – 80.50 over the last two trading days. We can watch for forex price action sell signals on any rotations higher into resistance. We see resistance coming in near 80.30 and within the 8 / 21 day EMA layer, as marked on the daily chart below. Key support is near 79.50 which you can easily see if you look at the weekly chart of this market.
Check out my latest trading lesson: 5 Mistakes Preventing You From Making Money Trading
April ‘Easter’ Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the euro closed the day basically unchanged after news that Spain is moving back into recession. Weaker economic data out of the U.S. also worked to lessen risk appetite today, and pushED the U.S. dollar higher against most other major currencies.
The Australian dollar lost ground, moving lower by about 0.5 percent ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting which is expected to announce a cut in interest rates.
The Japanese yen was today’s big winner, gaining ground on all the other majors including the U.S. dollar.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks moved lower on the back of recent economic data that suggest the U.S. economy might be slowing down a bit, as well as concerns about the euro-zone on the back of a recession in Spain.
The Dow lost 14.68 points, or 0.11 percent, the S&P 500 lost 5.45 points, or 0.39 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 22.84 points, or 0.74 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 5/1/2012
12:30am EST: Australia – Cash Rate
12:30am EST: Australia – RBA Rate Statement
4:30am EST: Britain – Manufacturing PMI
10:00am EST: United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Weekly Forex Chart Price Action Outlook for April 30th – May 4th 2012
EURUSD
The EURUSD moved higher last week and has exhibited bullish momentum for the last two weeks. We can see the daily 8 / 21 EMAs have recently crossed higher reflecting this bullishness. Price closed above the key resistance / support level at 1.3200 this week (zoom your charts out to see). Next week, traders could watch the dynamic 8 / 21 EMA support layer for potential buy setups if price moves lower, while being aware that this market is really still range-bound and not in a defined trend yet. Key resistance comes in at 1.3380.
GBPUSD
The British pound has been exploding higher recently against the U.S. dollar, as we can see in the GBPUSD chart below. This market has gained ground for the last 10 consecutive days, so the chances of a retrace soon are increasing. If price does retrace this week, we will watch near-term support around 1.6165 and the 8 day EMA for potential forex price action buy signals to re-join the upward momentum of this market.
NZDUSD
In our commentary from last Monday we discussed that the NZDUSD had found support off 0.8120 and formed 1 hour and 4 hour pin bar trading strategies that could lead to a move towards 0.8285 resistance. The move took basically all week to come off, but after chopping sideways for 3 days we can see on Friday price shot significantly higher and is now threatening to re-test the resistance at the top of the range near 0.8285.
USDCAD
The DOLLAR / CAD has clearly broken and closed outside of its recent trading range and we can see bearish momentum is in full control here. Traders can look for sell signals on any rotations into resistance on the 4 hour or daily charts this week.
Spot GOLD
Spot Gold pushed higher into the end of last week after the bullish pin bar off support that we discussed in Wednesday’s commentary sent prices climbing. Note that there were actually two pin bars last week off the same support level, showing clear rejection of $1625.00 support. We can see price has built a solid base of support and the previous downtrend on the daily chart is looking like it has lost steam for now. Near-term resistance is coming in around $1680.00, and we could see a re-test of that level this week and then perhaps range-bound conditions between $1680.00 – $1625.00 if price cannot move significantly higher.
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Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD formed a very obvious and well-defined pin bar trading setup off 1.0240 support this past Tuesday. We first discussed the potential for price to move higher off this setup in our members’ commentary shortly after the pin bar closed out on Tuesday. We can see price has since shot significantly higher and closed the week above near-term resistance at 1.0450. This market has clearly found solid support off 1.0225 – 1.0240, and we could see more gains in the near-term if price can remain buoyant.
GBPJPY
For those of you who follow me on Facebook, you know I posted up a GBPJPY long trade that I was in this past Tuesday. This trade was a ‘fizzer’ as the market did nothing but chop sideways all week. I got stopped out around breakeven today along with some other members in the forum as prices broke lower during Friday’s Asia session.
Check out my latest trading lesson: 5 Mistakes Preventing You From Making Money Trading
April ‘Easter’ Promotion - This month I’m offering a Special Discount on Lifetime membership to my Forex Course, Live Trade Setups Forum, Daily Trade Setups Newsletter, Email support line, and more. For more info visit the Forex Course Page Here.
Forex Commentary:
In the currency markets today, the potential for more economic stimulus worked to bring the U.S. dollar down against the other majors.
The greenback moved to multi-week lows against the euro and yen, it ended lower against all the other major currencies as well.
The British pound rose to $1.6254, marking its tenth consecutive day of gains against the greenback.
Other Markets:
In the U.S. markets today, stocks pushed higher on the back of strong corporate earnings reports. Shares of Amazon.com Inc and Expedia Inc rose 16 percent and 24 percent, respectively, pulling the rest of the market along with them.
The Dow added 23.69 points, or 0.18 percent, the S&P 500 gained 3.38 points, or 0.24 percent, and the Nasdaq added 18.59 points, or 0.61 percent.
Upcoming important economic announcements (New York time): 4/29/2012
9:00pm EST: New Zealand – NBNZ Business Confidence
4/30/2012
8:30am EST: Canada – GDP m/m
9:00pm EST: China – Manufacturing PMI
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