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USDCAD bounce off confluent level
Today we are looking at the daily USDCAD chart. Notice how as of Friday’s New York close the pair has formed a small bullish pin bar in the direction of the dominate uptrend.
This pin bar has bounced from the confluence of support near 1.0440 and the Fibonacci 50-61.8% retracement zone.
This setup is suggesting that the there is a possibility the uptrend in the USDCAD may pick back up next week. We will update this setup as it plays out in either direction.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great training videos: Forex trading videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The EURUSD was unable to continue its rally from yesterday as concerns mounted again regarding the euro-zone debt crisis. The credit rating agency Fitch downgraded Spain’s credit rating by one notch, saying the country’s economic recovery will be more muted than the government forecast due to its austerity measures.
The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen strengthened again today as global financial markets once again exhibited anxiety over investing into riskier assets.
The yen was the big winner, gaining against all the majors, with the U.S. dollar close behind, losing ground only to the yen.
Today the Dow lost 122.36 points, or 1.19 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 13.65 points, or 1.24 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 20.64 points, or 0.91 percent.
AUDUSD bullish counter-trend pin bar / fakey setup
It is a well-known fact that we teach that most price action setups should be taken in the context of a trending market or at extremely confluent levels of support or resistance, however, occasionally a counter-trend price action setup will work out, as we saw today in the AUDUSD counter-trend fakey / pin bar setup.
Counter-trend trading can be an addition to your trading tool box but it is only for advanced price action traders with a substantial amount of screen time and who have fine-tuned their discretionary trading skills.
There are specific entry techniques that work to cut your risk by around half that I teach in my advanced price action strategies course. If you want to take your knowledge of price action trading to the next level I suggest your check it out.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great training videos: Forex Trading Videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The Spanish government won a tight vote today to slash spending in an effort to cut its budget deficit and regain market confidence. This fact, along with soothing words from China and the U.S. about Europe, provided investors with a sense of confidence regarding the euro-zone debit crisis that allowed the euro and other currencies to recover today.
The euro rallied 1.6 percent versus the U.S. dollar today and 1.4 percent versus the yen.
The greenback was mainly lower today, losing ground to all the other major currencies except the Japanese yen.
The Dow rallied 284.54 points, or 2.85%, the S&P500 gained 35.11 points, or 3.29%, and the Nasdaq gained 81.80 points, or 3.73%.
Trend Trading on the EURJPY and AUDUSD
EURJPY: update
In yesterday’s commentary we posted up a daily chart of the EURJPY and commented on a recent inside bar formation that formed. Today we are updating that discussion.
Notice how the inside bar that formed with the dominant down trend continued to push lower today and is threatening to push the pair to new lows.
This setup highlights the power of trend trading and further drives home the fact that trying to pick tops and bottoms is a loser’s game.
For some great forex trading articles touching a wide-range of topics click here: Forex Articles
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
AUDUSD: Pin Bar
The AUDUSD has formed a bearish pin bar signal with dominant down trend today. Notice the counter-trend pin bar from yesterday did not work out but ended up giving rise to false break and a much stronger bearish pin bar with the trend.
Commentary
The Euro lost ground again today as news suggesting China was reassessing its euro-zone debt holdings gave investors and traders more reasons to sell the European currency.
The EURGBP lost considerable ground again today as the euro got beat against all the majors today with the EURUSD, EURJPY, EURCAD, and EURAUD all finishing lower today as well.
The U.S dollar gained ground against all the majors except for the Japanese yen today. The yen was the big winner today as the U.S. stock market sell-off in the last minutes contributed to the safe-haven currency’s strength.
The Dow lost 69.30 points, or 0.69 percent, the S&P 500 dropped 6.08 points, or 0.57 points, and the Nasdaq lost 15.07 points, or 0.68 percent.
Price Action Explained – One of the most challenging frontiers for Forex traders has been interpretingand trading Price Action. Traders who make serious money in forex trading, all trade from raw price charts with huge regard for the patterns and signals forming on short term and longer term technical picture.
Continue Reading Advanced Price Action Forex Trading – Nial FullerCurrency pair in focus: EUR/JPY TREND TRADING
We are looking at two signals that have formed recently in the EURJPY in the direction of the dominant down trend. The first was a very nice pin bar setup that formed on May 10th and indicated clear rejection of the resistance near 122.40. This signal set off a huge down move that savvy price action traders should have profited from.
The second signal was an inside bar formation that developed yesterday. The inside bar setup came off to the down side nicely during today’s session, however it did get bid higher into the New York closing. There was bullish counter-trend pin bar that formed today, but we do not advise traders to trade against such an aggressive trend.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great training videos: Forex trading videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar closed mostly unchanged today against the other major currencies as a late day rally in equities contributed to the greenback giving up most of its early session gains.
The dollar managed slight gains against the British pound, Euro, and Canadian dollar, while losing slight ground to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar.
The Dow lost 22.82 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.38 point, and the Nasdaq lost 2.60 points.
Currency pair in focus: EURGBP
The pin bar setup that formed in EURGBP last Friday has worked out very nicely thus far. This pin bar setup had a number of factors in its favor:
• It was in the direction of the dominant down trend
• It showed clear rejection of a strong horizontal resistance level near 0.8775
• It had good definition: long upper tail and the close was lower than the open
• The technical picture was confirming the current weak fundamental picture of the euro.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great training videos: Forex trading videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar strengthened against all the major currencies today as euro-zone debt troubles continued to weaken investor risk appetite.
The Japanese yen also performed well today, gaining on most of the majors except for slight losses against the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar.
The global economic picture remains uncertain with the euro-zone debt problems continuing to cast a negative vibe over the financial markets. Until investors begin to feel more confident that the euro-zone debt crisis will not spread to other countries we are likely to see existing trends continue in currencies, stocks, and commodities.
The Dow lost 126.82 points, or 1.24 percent. The S&P 500 lost 14.04 points, 1.29 percent, the Nasdaq dropped 15.49 points, or 0.69 percent.
Currency Market – The currency market is an international exchange where governments, businesses, and individuals can buy or sell one currency against another. The fundamental reason for the currency market’s existence is to facilitate the exchange of currencies between countries whether it is for businesses transactions or for individuals who are traveling abroad. Trading the currency market has become very popular for retail investors as there are often some very strong trends and volatile price action occurring in the currency market. This allows for small traders and investors to use the currency market as a quality source of diversification for their investments.
Continue Reading Currency MarketForeign Exchange – Trading the markets for profit can indeed be a difficult proposition to undertake. However, the foreign exchange market offers some unique opportunities to retail traders and investors who are looking to learn how to manage their own money rather than leave it to some of the greedy thieves at companies like Goldman Sachs and the like.
Continue Reading Foreign ExchangeCurrency pair in focus: CAD/JPY
The current daily CADJPY chart is a great example of how to effectively trade the forex market using price action setups.
Notice the small pin bar at the top of the chart that kicked off the recent downward cascade. There were two more excellent pin bar entries that could have easily gotten savvy price action traders in on this huge move.
Knowing when to use price action can be the difference between consistent profits and average or sub-par trading performance. One of the most valuable things I teach in my trading course is WHEN to use price action setups, as this is one of the most important skills to develop, it will help you to not over trade and greatly improve your overall winning percentage and as a result will build your trading account much quicker than what would otherwise be possible.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary
The U.S. dollar fell to the euro today as investors who had bet on the euro’s decline bought it back on fears of central bank currency intervention.
The greenback was lower across the board today against the other major currencies with the exception being the Japanese yen, which it gained against modestly.
European finance ministers met on Friday to discuss changes to budget rules to prevent another Greek-style debt crisis. Many came to the currency’s defense.
Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank President, was quoted in a German daily saying: “It is clear. The euro is not in danger.”
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny, head of Austria’s central bank, took out full-page advertisements in Austrian newspapers on Friday in a bid to allay concerns about the single currency.
The Dow gained 125.38 points, or 1.25 percent, the S&P 500 gained 16.10 points, or 1.50 percent, and the Nasdaq rose 25.03 points, or 1.14 percent.
Currency pair in focus: AUDJPY and USDCAD
Update: AUDJPY bearish pin bar setup
For a great example of using price action to trade with the dominant market momentum let’s take a look at a pin bar setup we discussed back on May 15th. For the original commentary post click here: AUDJPY commentary.
Notice how well the pin bar setup has worked out and how it kicked off a cascade of selling, crashing right through strong support near 76.50-77.00.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great training videos: Forex trading videos
Update: USDCAD bullish pin bar / fakey setup
Also posted back on May 15th was a very good pin bar / fakey setup combo signal that was in the direction of the dominant bullish momentum and gave rise to a great move. For the original commentary click here: USDCAD commentary.
Notice how well formed this pin bar / fakey was and that it had the strength of the recent bullish trend behind it.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The Japanese yen was the big winner today in the currency markets, largely due to nose diving global stock prices. The U.S. dollar also gained against most of the currencies but posted a small loss against the euro and a larger loss to the yen.
The euro seemed to rally midway through the trading session today as rumors swirled that further intervention might materialize by the Euro-zone central bank to help stabilize the escalating debt problem there.
Commodities prices fell as traders and investors speculate that a weak global economy might curtail demand for raw materials.
Analysts claimed that neither a rise in U.S. unemployment claims for last week nor the continued upheaval in Greece appeared to set off today’s selling. They said more investors are simply beginning to grasp the possibility that the stock market’s huge bounce since March 2009 may have been largely unjustified.
The Dow closed lower by 376.36 points, or 3.6 percent, the S&P 500 lost 43.46 points, or 3.9 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 94.36 points, or 4.1 percent.
Currency pair in focus: GBPJPY
Update: COUNTER-TREND PIN BAR FAILURE
As the European session gets underway the counter-trend pin bar setup we posted earlier in the commentary is failing due to the shear force of this strong downtrend. As stated in our initial commentary today, “trading against the trend is not recommended as a general rule”
GBPJPY pin bar off support
The GBPJPY has formed another counter-trend bullish pin bar. This one is a stronger signal than the one on Monday however.
The reasons for this are that it is showing clear and decisive rejection of the significant support level near 129.75, its very well defined, and it is the 2nd rejection candle near support in 3 days. This pin bar is indicating a possible counter-trend rally may be setting up. However, please keep in mind this setup is still against the broader downtrend and we advise new traders to trade with the dominant trend only. Trading against the trend is not recommended as a general rule unless you are a very experienced price action trader.
To learn more about price action trading click here for some great articles: Forex articles
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The euro recovered today after its recent beating by most of the other currencies.
The greenback lost ground to the British pound, Euro, and Japanese yen, while gaining modestly against the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar with larger gains coming against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
The New Zealand dollar was especially volatile today losing nearly 300 pips to the greenback before closing well of its session lows.
The Dow lost 66.58 points, or 0.63%, the S&P 500 shed 5.75 points, or 0.51 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 18.89 points, or 0.82 percent.
Sometimes the more we want something the harder it becomes to obtain. This is never truer than it is when applied to the world of forex trading. Many, if not most, traders approach the forex market from the mindset of, “I NEED to make money from this”, or, “I REALLY want to quit my job and become a full-time forex trader”. While these are indeed admirable and lofty goals, such thinking patterns can contribute to a cascade of psychological impediments to consistent trading results…
Continue Reading The Path to Price Action Forex Trading Success; “Less Is More”Currency pair in focus: AUDUSD and GBPJPY
AUDUSD:
The AUDUSD formed a very nice bearish pin bar with the dominant down trend back on 5/13. Notice how powerful the ensuing move was as the trend resumed and picked up momentum.
Click here for some great forex trading videos and examples of price action setups.
Update: GBPJPY pin bar off support
The GBPJPY pin bar setup we discussed in yesterday’s commentary is no longer valid. As we pointed out yesterday, the pin bar was a counter-trend setup, therefore it had a smaller probability of working out from the start. This is a good example of why you should stick with the trend.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar gained ground today against most of the major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen.
The greenback and the yen have both been strengthening recently on the back of increased global economic turmoil regarding escalating European debt and the possibility of increased financial regulations in various countries.
The Dow dropped 114.88 points, or 1.08 percent, the S&P 500 was off 16.16 points, or 1.42 percent, and the Nasdaq closed lower by 36.97 points, or 1.57 percent.
Price Action Forex Trading Entry where I used Support and Resistance combined with Candlestick Reversal to enter shorts on EURUSD pair.
View Support and Resistance Levels with Candlestick Reversals VideoDaily Market Commentary
Currency pair in focus: GBPJPY
The GBPJPY currency pair formed a bullish pin bar today off support near 131.00. This pin bar is a counter-trend setup, which means it carries less weight than if it were with the current dominant downtrend.
However, this pin bar is showing clear rejection of the low from the wide-spread market sell off on May 6th. This indicates there may be a counter-trend rally in store. Resistance comes in around 139.40.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The greenback gained ground early in today’s FX session but by the New York close it had given back most of its gains to the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar. The greenback did manage to rise against the Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, and Australian dollar however.
There are a few more quality price action setups that have formed today which we will discuss in the chart commentary section over in the member’s area.
The Dow rose 5.67 points, or 0.05 percent, the S&P 500 closed up 1.26 points, or 0.11 percent, and the Nasdaq rose 7.38 points, or 0.31 percent.
Currency pair in focus: AUDJPY and USDCAD
Update: AUDJPY Bearish Pin Bar Setup
The AUDJPY bearish pin bar setup we discussed in last Thursday’s commentary has come off nicely to the downside into the close of last week’s trading session.
This pin bar setup had a number of factors contributing to its success. Some of these include its quality of definition and the fact that it occurred in the context of volatile market conditions and showed rejection of a strong horizontal level.
For more information on the pin bar setup and other price action setups please check out some of these forex trading videos.
USDCAD: Pin Bar / Fakey setup
The USDCAD formed a good pin bar / fakey combo setup last Thursday that came off very nicely on Friday. Our member’s got notice of this great price action setup shortly after the New York close on Thursday evening.
For more information on pin bar and fakey setups please click here: Forex Strategies
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar gained ground on most of the major currencies Friday, with the exception being the Japanese yen. The yen was the biggest winner Friday as we saw a return to risk aversion due to persisting concerns over the European debt crisis.
Commodity prices were lower Friday as well, oil slid to a 3-month low to below $72 a barrel, this helped to further support the bullish sentiment behind the U.S. dollar. The euro fell to an 18-month low against the greenback today.
The Dow lost 162.79 points, or 1.51 percent, the S&P 500 lost 21.76 points, or 1.88 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 47.51 points, or 1.98 percent.
Stocks might face more volatility next week as mounting concerns regarding whether or not Europe can solve its worsening debt crisis are likely to take the spotlight again.
It is worth noting however that the Dow rose 2.3 percent for the week, the S&P 500 rose 2.2 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 3.6 percent.
Currency pair in focus: AUDJPY
Today we are looking at the daily chart of the AUDJPY currency pair.
Notice the well formed bearish pin bar that is showing clear rejection of a resistance level near 84.50. This pin bar setup is also showing a nice and long upper-shadow, or tail, indicating a decisive rejection has occurred.
The fact that the close is lower than the open also adds weight to this pin bar setup possibly coming off to the downside over the coming days. We will update this price action setup as it unfolds.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading training course.
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar was up today against a basket of major currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.64 percent to 85.374.
The greenback lost 0.49 percent to the yen, to close at 92.71.
Crude oil traded lower for the third straight session today, dragged down by global economic concerns and rising U.S. crude inventories.
The Dow closed down 113.96 points, or 1.05 percent, the S&P 500 lost 14.23 points, or 1.21 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 30.66 points, or 1.26 percent.
Currency pair in focus: EURGBP 4 hour
Today we are discussing the EURGBP currency pair. Specifically, we are looking at a 4 hour chart of the pair and a massive bearish pin bar that formed last Friday during the intense volatility we saw on the back of euro-zone debt concerns.
Notice how this pin bar setup was very large and very well defined, it also formed in the context of a very strong downtrend, adding further validity to the setup. I teach a very specific method of trading these massive types of pin bars that lets you take advantage of the retracements that often occur after such a large pin bar has formed, like the one visible in today’s chart.
This chart goes to prove, once again, how powerful price action analysis is. Price action works great in the context of average daily price movement and trading volume, however, it works even better during volatile price movement like we have been seeing recently. It truly is the best and simplest method to use to effectively trade the forex market.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading training course.
Commentary:
The U.S. dollar was mostly higher today, the greenback gained on the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, while losing slight ground to the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.
We did see somewhat of a divergence today from the typical expectation of U.S. dollar weakness in the face of strengthening equities and commodities. The greenback seemed to hold its ground against most of the majors even in the face of a very good day on Wall Street and in commodities. This may be an indication of an expectation of higher interest rates in the U.S. should economic data continue to strengthen.
The Dow closed out 148.65 points higher, or 1.38 percent, the S&P 500 added 15.88 points, or 1.37 points, and the Nasdaq gained 49.71 points or 2.09 percent.
Currency pair in focus: EURJPY and Gold
EURJPY:
The EURJPY bearish pin bar setup we discussed in yesterday’s commentary has come off nicely to the downside today.
This pin bar was with the dominant bearish market momentum and is showing clear rejection of resistance near 122.30, there is not much in the way of support until about 110.50
Gold:
Gold surged to record highs today of about $1234.00 an ounce. There were 3 good pin bar entries that could have gotten you into this great move.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
We saw a flight to safety today on the back of skepticism regarding Europe’s $1 trillion rescue plan with gold surging to all time highs of just over $1,234.00 an ounce and the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen strengthening.
The U.S. dollar was mostly higher today but lost slight ground to the British pound and the Canadian dollar. The greenback also closed lower to the Japanese yen.
The yen gained against most of its counterparts today, except for a small lose to the British pound which surged higher due to intense EURGBP weakness.
The Dow closed 36.88 points lower, or 0.34 percent, the S&P 500 lost 3.94 points, or 0.34 percent, the Nasdaq gained 0.64 point, or 0.03 percent.
This article will spell out a way to construct your own personal Constitution, one which can guide you in your daily life and as a trader. Imagine you are driving along one day and you pass a church with many cars parked outside. Out of curiosity you pull in. With a strange feeling of apprehension and anticipation you enter and walk down the aisle.
Continue Reading A SUCCESSFUL FOREX TRADER’S CONSTITUTION – Part 2
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