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Daily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar traded mixed today against the major currency pairs. After a large gap opening on Sunday in most of the major FX pairs, the greenback moved to fill the gap, at least partially, in the majors.
The British pound is trading relatively unchanged from Friday as of today’s U.S. market closing. The Euro had a huge gap up against the greenback but has subsequently retraced to the downside, although the gap has not completely filled yet. The AUDUSD is trading slightly lower from Friday’s close, as is the NZDUSD.
The dollar is virtually unchanged against the yen as of today’s New York close; it is also basically unchanged against the Canadian dollar.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today stocks moved modestly higher as concerns ease over Greece debt issues. A loan agreement for Greece was made and this allowed investors to concentrate on the busy week of corporate earnings and economic reports.
The Dow closed above the 11,000 mark for the first time in nearly 19 months today, mainly due to expectations that first-quarter earnings will be solid as well as positive movement in the financial, energy and industrial sectors.
The Dow added 8.84 points to end at 11,006.19, the S&P 500 added 2.12 points, and the Nasdaq closed 3.82 points higher.
Currency pair in focus: EUR/JPY
Today we are looking at the EURJPY pin bar setup that formed last Thursday. Notice the bullish pin bar was going with the dominant daily momentum of the last month or so, which was to the upside.
The pair had a huge gap open yesterday, this gap may fill, if it does the bottom of the gap is then likely to act as a support area. This would be a good spot to watch for more bullish price action.
Check out a great pin bar video here: Forex training video
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex training course.
Daily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar traded lower against the majors today, with the U.S. Dollar Index down 0.77 percent at 81.906.
Gold rose to its highest level this year as the downgrade of Greece’s debt renewed fears regarding the euro-zone’s financial stability and prompted a flight to safety.
The euro gained firmly on the greenback today. The greenback also lost ground to every other major currency except the Canadian dollar.
Oil prices feel for a 3rd day and pulled back from 18-month highs as over inflated inventories revived concerns about weak demand and technical signals sparked a sell-off, this was largely the reason why the Canadian dollar lost ground to the greenback today as Canada is a major producer of oil.
Stocks:
Global stocks rose today as Euro-zone leaders agree to terms for a possible Greek loan. U.S. stocks were also higher with the Dow hitting the 11,000 mark for the 1st time since September of 2008.
U.S. shares gained following an upbeat outlook from Chevron; meanwhile data that showed U.S. wholesale inventories and sales by wholesalers rose more than expected in February brightened the economic and earnings outlook.
The Dow closed up 70.28 points, or 0.64 percent, to end the week at 10,997.35, the S&P 500 added 7.93 points, or 0.67 percent, to end the week at 1,194.37, and the Nasdaq gained 17.24 points, or 0.71 percent, to end the week at 2,454.05.
Currency pair in focus: EUR/USD
Today we are looking at the EURUSD. Yesterday in our member’s forum we posted up this bullish pin bar setup right after the New York session close. The setup has come off quite nicely today. The next resistance level comes in near 1.3600.
For an excellent pin bar educational article please click here: Forex trading strategies
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex training course.
Daily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar was mixed today, gaining strength overnight during the Asian and European sessions and then trading lower against most of the majors into the New York session close.
The greenback lost modestly to the euro, pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and kiwi while gaining slightly on the yen.
The U.S. dollar has been under pressure as of late and the path of least resistance definitely appears to be against the greenback.
Stocks:
U.S. stock markets rose today on the back of surprisingly strong March retail sales which was the catalyst for optimism that consumer spending would induce positive corporate earnings.
David Katz, chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors in New York said, “Clearly the consumer is showing that they are beginning to spend again.”
“The biggest thing in the market at the moment is, the path of least resistance is higher,” Katz said. “You’ve had an improving market for the last month-and-a-half, and you have people that were underinvested that seem to be jumping on that bandwagon.”
The Dow gained 42.40 points, or 0.39 percent, the S&P 500 added 4.84 points, or 0.41 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 6.88 points, or 0.28 percent.
Currency pair in focus: GBP/JPY
Today we are looking at the GBPJPY daily chart. The currency pair has formed a bullish pin bar setup in the direction of the recent daily momentum.
Notice how the pin bar closed above the 8 period EMA in the chart below; this adds further validity to the setup. We don’t advocate using indicators here at LTTTM, but we do use a few different moving averages from time to time to show trend direction and to help identify dynamic support and resistance levels.
Find out more about the specific moving averages we use and how we implement them in my price action trading course.
To see an instructional video on how to trade pin bars click here: Forex Training Video
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading training course.
Daily Forex Market Commentary:
The U.S. dollar traded higher basically across the board today, with a slight loss to the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese Yen.
The greenback gained ground on the euro, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar.
Worries about the debt situation in Greece again weighed on the euro after the Greek government said the country’s banks had requested billions of euros in support and euro-zone states argued over the conditions of potential bailout loans.
Looking ahead, the U.S. dollar seems to be picking up a bit of steam, we need to see some more solid directional movement across the currency pairs, as well as price action before the case for or against greenback strength can be further argued.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today stocks closed lower in a wide-spread late day drop after a Federal Reserve official said interest rates should not remain low for much longer. Investors saw this as a sign to take profits.
The Federal Reserve’s near-zero rate policy has been the underlying catalyst of a rally of nearly 75 percent since the March 9, 2009 low.
Investors generally take interest rate increase as a negative sign because it makes business and individuals less likely to take out loans and invest in the economy.
The Dow lost 72.47 points, or 0.66 percent, the S&P 500 lost 6.99 points, or 0.59 percent, and the Nasdaq lost 5.65 points or 0.23 percent.
Currency pair in focus: EUR/USD inside bar
The EURUSD formed an inside bar last Friday just under resistance near 1.3600. This was a good inside bar setup for two reasons. 1) It provided a signal in the direction of the prevailing downtrend, and 2) It formed at a significant horizontal resistance area.
The market sold off from the low of this inside bar and appears to be ready to re-test 1.3270 and possibly lower.
For a great article on price action click here: Forex Training Article
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Daily Forex Market Commentary:
The U.S. dollar traded mixed today, the greenback gained ground on the British pound, euro, and Swiss franc while losing to the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar.
The AUDUSD is looking strong after breaking up past the downtrend line resistance line near 0.9220-0.9250. Next upside resistance comes in around 0.9400. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) raised interest rates up to 4.25% from 4.00% yesterday, bolstering the currency against the greenback.
The euro weakened today on renewed concerns regarding Greece and a planned aid package from the IMF.
Looking ahead, current trends seem to be safe, watch for price action setups in the direction of the recent daily momentum in all the currency pairs, see chart commentary in the member’s area for more details for more details.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today stocks were mixed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining modest ground after the financial sector got a lift from positive comments from market analysts, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting also worked to lift the financial sector after it suggest the central bank could keep interest rates at ultra-low levels longer than investors had anticipated should the economy worsen.
The Dow continued to flirt with the psychological 11,000 level, coming within 13 points of the level after a brief run into positive territory following the Fed’s minutes. The Dow closed lower however, by 3.56 points, the S&P 500 added 2.00 points, and the Nasdaq rose 7.28 points.
Currency pair in focus: AUDUSD inside bar breakout
Today we are looking at the AUDUSD inside bar breakout that we discussed in the commentary from 4-3-10, see the commentary here: inside bar setup. The inside bar ended up quickly tripping stops to the downside before roaring back in the direction of the recent daily momentum to the upside.
Inside bars are best played with the dominant daily momentum, which was clearly bullish as we can see in the chart below. Note that the next solid resistance level comes in around 0.9400.
Check out this link for an article on the inside bar: forex inside bar setup
Also, check out an article on the 50% retracement technique: Trading 50% retracements with price action
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Forex Currency Trading Course Finding a high quality forex training course can be tricky because the majority of courses out there do not really reveal what the core concepts are before you purchase it. Essentially, most of them are scams, if the course authors truly believed in their product they would provide you with a [...]
Continue Reading Forex Currency Trading CourseTrade the Forex Market So you want to learn to trade the forex currency market. There are some key considerations you want to keep in mind before setting out on this journey. Trading forex can be a great way to make a living; however, typically the people that make it to the point of being [...]
Continue Reading Trade the Forex MarketDaily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar lost ground today to the British pound, Australian dollar, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar, while gaining slightly on the euro, Swiss franc, and New Zealand dollar.
Gold and crude oil also closed higher today, putting further pressure on the greenback.
Looking ahead, the recent plethora of positive U.S. economic data has had a stimulating effect on equities and commodities, which generally leads the U.S. dollar to decrease in value against currencies with higher interest rates.
This might change should inflation become a concern within the U.S., this would led the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates, which would work to bolster the U.S. dollar against the majors and reduce the advance in equities and commodities.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today stocks climbed higher, the Dow nearly hit 11,000 as an improving labor market raised hopes the economy is becoming stronger and the profit outlook is becoming more positive.
Energy shares rose substantially as U.S. front-month crude oil futures broke above $86 a barrel, Exxon Mobil Corp was up almost 1 percent and Chevron Crop rose 1.3 percent
The Dow and the S&P 500 both closed the session at new 18-month highs, while the Nasdaq rose to a 19-month closing high. The Dow gained 46.48 points, or 0.43 percent, the S&P 500 rose 9.34 points, or 0.79 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 26.95 points, or 1.12 percent.
Currency pair in focus: USD/JPY Fakey
Today we are recapping the USDJPY bullish fakey setup from 3/30. This setup has provided traders a reward of at least 2 times their initial risk, this is what we look for at a minimum here at learn to trade the market.
Now that 93.75 has been decisively penetrated to the upside it is likely that it will switch to support, this market is clearly bullish but will likely experience consolidation or a pullback lower before another significant leg higher occurs.
We will update traders of any impending price action setups forming, check back here or in the member’s forum for updated information every day on the USDJPY.
Click here for some videos on the fakey setup and other great price action setups: Forex Training Videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex training course.
Hey Traders,
Theres a few things will likely to be occuring in the forex market over the next few weeks, and traders should be prepared for some good movement in the major yen pairs and major US dollar pairs. We have had some good movement already on pairs like AUDJPY , GBPJPY, and in fact all yen pairs for that matter, as well as AUDUSD which looks to be brewing for a new wleg higher. We have also seen some dead cat bounces in the EURUSD which show some promise for a US dollar leg lower. The market just looks to be ready for a trending period, and I am simply saying that we need to be sticking with these moves, and looking for entries with the short term trend where possible. My main points of focus would be on the Yen pairs (AUDJPY and GBPJPY), and of course the AUDUSD and EURUSD (my 2 favorite majors presently). I expand on my views, price action signals which have formed, and technical levels in the members area, click here to learn more about my forex course , daily commentary and trading forum.
Talk soon
Nial
Daily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar traded higher on Friday as the U.S. economy added 163,000 jobs in March, the fastest pace of growth in three years.
The greenback traded higher against all the major currency pairs, however this may have just been a correction in the recent strength that most of the majors, minus the Japanese yen, have being displaying recently against the U.S. dollar. Some of the dollar strength we saw on Friday can be attributed to profit taking before the Easter weekend, as well as a case of “sell the fact”, after the U.S. employment numbers came out.
Looking ahead, optimism about an improving labor market and corporate profits could push U.S. stocks higher this coming week as earning season approaches. Typically when stocks move higher, safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen tend to lose ground to currencies with higher interest rate yields.
Stocks:
U.S. stock markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday, however a strong showing in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will likely add fuel to the fire that has been pushing stocks higher as of late.
Most market analysts expect that the payrolls data will add support to the stock market as U.S. stock futures rallied on Friday in the wake of the employment numbers release.
However, the S&P 500 index is up 74 percent from the March 2009 low and some analysts are worried the rally be interrupted if the economy does not maintain its strength.
Investors will be looking for corporate guidance as we head into earnings season, which starts with Aloca Inc on April 12.
Currency pair in focus: AUD/USD
Today we are looking at the AUDUSD daily chart. Momentum has been bullish in this pair recently and on Friday the market formed an inside bar just below resistance near 0.9215-0.9250.
The zoomed out daily chart below shows the story more clearly. Should we see a decisive break up from Friday’s inside bar high and past the 0.9250 area, the market is likely to re-test resistance near 0.9400 and should this level break, the all time highs would be the next target near 0.9850.
For a great video on the inside bar please click here: Inside bar training video
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
Daily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar was mostly lower today against the major currencies as equities and commodities gained again. U.S. oil futures rose to an 18-month intraday high above $85 a barrel after economic data showed further signs of improvement within the U.S. economy. Gold was also higher today.
The greenback lost ground to the euro, pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar, while gaining modestly on the New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc and moderately on the Japanese yen.
Looking ahead, most financial markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The U.S. unemployment report that will be released tomorrow is expected to show a substantial gain in employment in the U.S. This could mean further equity and commodity strength into next week and a continuation of the recent greenback weakness. However, if the number comes in substantially lower than expectations it could signal a return to U.S. dollar strength and Japanese yen strength as investors would likely flee back to safe haven currencies.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today The Dow and S&P rose thanks to positive economic data, however, the Nasdaq was relatively flat as investors aggressively sold shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) after negative results.
The U.S. stock market will be closed for Good Friday the same day the highly anticipated March unemployment report is released, many investors chose to take profits before the extended Easter holiday weekend halting an early session run-up of around 1 percent.
Materials, energy, and major manufacturing companies led the Dow and S&P gains as Thursday’s data implies strengthening global demand for commodities.
The Dow was up 70.44 points on the first day of the new quarter, the S&P rose 8.67 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.62 points.
Currency pair in focus: GBP/USD
Today we are looking at two inside bar setups that set off very decent moves in the GBPUSD. We can see in the chart below the first inside bar formed just beneath resistance near 1.5380-1.5320, the market proceeded to sell-off from this level, using the inside bar as an entry signal you could have set targets just above support near 1.4800 and easily obtained a risk to reward of 1:3 or higher.
The second inside bar setup occurred last Friday just above 1.4800 support and has since shot up to just below 1.5300. Inside bar setups off horizontal support and resistance are great price action setups. Check out some great videos on the inside bar and other setups here: Forex videos
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
My success in forex trading started when I finally started to recognize the repetitive behavior of the daily Forex price charts. This article will talk briefly about my trading journey and where I am today as a result.
Continue Reading How Price Action Trading Changed My life – Full Time Forex TradingDaily Forex Market Commentary
The U.S. dollar was weaker today against the euro, pound, Swiss franc, and Cad. dollar. The greenback gained ground on the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and slightly on the Kiwi dollar.
A very poor Australian retail sales report and Australian building approvals report late yesterday has caused the AUDUSD to maintain a bearish tone and unable to break past resistance near 0.9200.
Looking ahead, the currency markets are closed in many countries for the Good Friday and Passover holidays, the U.S. markets will be open however and releasing the monthly employment report which is expected to show a sharp increasing in U.S. employment.
Stocks:
On Wall Street today stocks lost ground as a report showing a surprise drop in private-sector employment stoked concerns about the health of the job market two days before the government’s significant employment report.
The Dow closed 50.79 points lower, or 0.47 percent, the S&P closed 3.84 points lower, or 0.33 percent, and the Nasdaq closed 12.73 points lower or 0.53 percent.
Currency pair in focus: EUR/USD
Today we are looking at the EURUSD 4 hour chart and analyzing the bullish fakey setup that formed overnight. Notice how once the fakey bar formed the market took off upwards into the next resistance zone around 1.3540.
This was a classic example of a good 4 hour fakey setup that provided a risk to reward ratio of at least 1:2. These are the types of setups we trade here at learn to trade the market and the types of strategies you will find in our comprehensive forex price action trading course.
Update: USD/JPY bullish fakey setup
The USDJPY inside bar setup that we posted in the commentary on Monday resulted in a bullish fakey setup that has come off the upside today. We noted in the commentary on Monday that the pair was exhibiting bullish momentum and we would prefer to be buyers pending a bullish price action setup.
Update: GBP/JPY 4 hour bearish pin bar
Note the bearish pin bar setup from yesterday’s commentary resulted in a loss, as noted in the commentary this was a more speculative setup because it was counter-trend. This is why we generally advise traders to trade with the dominant momentum. In this case, the momentum was definitely bullish. Notice how after the upper tail of the pin bar was violated this area became support once the market sold back down to it.
For a more in-depth analysis of the major FX pairs as well as price action training, please check out my forex trading course.
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