Learn to trade Forex & CFD's with Nial Fuller . . .
PRICE ACTION TRADING FORUM
Daily Forex Market Commentary:
Stocks rose on Wall Street today in light volume ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors bought stocks as the biggest drop in unemployment claims all year and increase in new home sales added fuel to the economic recovery.
NEW YORK (AP) — The safe-haven dollar slid to a 15-month low against the euro, was within striking distance of 14-year lows versus the yen and dipped below parity against the Swiss franc Wednesday as markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s indication that interest rates will remain at super-low levels for a while and it was not overly concerned by the U.S. currency’s decline.
Pair in focus: euro/dollar
As stated above the dollar hit a 15-month low against the euro today as the currency pair currently sits at 1.5141 U.S. dollar per euro. As we pointed out in yesterday’s commentary this pair was getting ready to move. Our member’s received in-depth price action analysis of this trade and others that are all well in the money right now. By simple price action analysis we were able to catch a great break out trade.
We can see below in this daily EUR/USD chart that Tuesday’s inside/pin bar broke up for a substantial gain. Yesterday’s our paid members commentary featured a 4hr chart view of this setup before it broke out with an obviously well defined pin bar. Support now sits in the low 1.5000’s area of the chart.
For a more in-depth analysis of the Major FX Pairs and Price Action Signals please check out our Forex Trading Course Members Section
Why Trade Forex with Price Action ? - The forex market is a highly liquid and sometimes fast moving market that lends itself wonderfully to the trading method of price action analysis. Price action analysis is the identification and implementation of specific price action signals or setups in the market you are trading. Forex is a great market to use price action analysis on because it is open 24 hours a day 6 days a week and this means there are more price action signals for you to take advantage of. All you need to know is what to look for and you can best learn this from a professional price action trader.
Continue Reading Why Use Forex Price Action Analysis ?Daily Forex Market Commentary
Stocks were down modestly today as the Fed commented the recovery might not be strong enough to quickly drive down the jobless rate.
Pair in focus: euro/dollar
After selling off a bit during the European session the euro closed virtually unchanged from yesterday around 1.4960. We can see some very nice price action signals that have occurred in this 4hr chart below. Price action signals work great in trading ranges and in trends. Yesterday’s session gave us a well formed 4hr pin bar with the over-all up trend on this pair. A solid break above 1.5000 could move up to 1.5200 while a break below 1.4820 could move to 1.4600. This pair is getting ready to move, let’s use price action to light the way…
For more in-depth analysis of the Major FX Pairs and Price Action Signals please check out our online trading community.
Commentary by Nial Fuller and Larry K.
Daily Forex Market Commentary:
On Wall Street today the Dow hit a new 13-month high on the back of a weak dollar and a surprising jump in home sales.
Currencies gained on the dollar across the board. We can see in the chart below of the euro dollar that we are approaching the 1.5000 level again. This level has proved to be quite difficult to break through. A solid close above 1.5050 would signal fresh buying pressure for this currency pair.
Pair in focus: euro/dollar
EUR/USD daily chart: range bound for now, awaiting a break of 1.5050 or 1.4820 for market direction.
For more in-depth analysis of the Major FX Pairs and Price Action Signals please join Our Forex Trading Members Community.
A Great Forex Training Video on Trading Bullish Pin Bar Signals on Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD). This is a great Tutorials Video on Trading the Pin Bar buy signal with 50% advanced Tweak Entry on the Daily Chart timeframe. If You Enjoy this Video Please Comment on It. If you want to learn more.. Check out my Price Action Forex Trading Course to learn More about my Members Trading Community and Trading Setups Forum.
View Trading Bullish Pin Bar Signals on Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD) VideoDaily Forex Market Commentary: 11-20-09
On Wall Street today the Dow closed down 14.28 points or .1 percent. The Dow fell 119 points the last three days of the trading week or 1.1 percent, however it ended up .5 percent because of big gains Monday following a better than expected retail sales report. Stocks saw light selling today on the back of increasing dollar strength and a rise in demand for the safest government debt. The ICE Futures US dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, rose 0.4 percent. A stronger dollar can hurt commodity prices and also sales of U.S. exporters, whose goods become more expensive overseas as the dollar rises. Traders predict volume will be light again next week because of Thanksgiving. Even with the holiday, next week provides a flurry of economic reports on home sales, unemployment, consumer confidence and demand for big-ticket manufactured goods. Could be an exciting week in the markets.
Pair in focus - euro dollar
We can see in a daily chart of EUR/USD below that the dollar has been gaining strength. A break below support at 1.4800-20 region next week could result in a quick test of 1.4700. Mean while, the uptrend against the dollar is still getting capped at the 1.5050 level and a close above this resistance is necessary for another big move to the upside.
For more in-depth analysis of the Major FX Pairs and Price Action Signals please join Our Forex Course and Members Community.
Daily Forex Market Commentary: 11-19-09
On Wall Street today investors fled stocks after discouraging signs indicated a subdued economic recovery. The Dow was down about 120 points in afternoon trading. Commodity stocks took the biggest hit as the dollar rose sharply. Another sign that the market rally is becoming unstable was the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index, which is commonly called “Wall Street’s fear gauge”, rose more than 9 percent.
EUR/USD
Here we see the daily chart of eur/usd is currently consolidating in a sideways wedge formation. The last two daily bars are inside Tuesday’s bar range. A breakout above Tuesday’s bar could signal resumption of the uptrend while a break below could mean a quick move down to the 1.4620 area. Has the dollar’s rally run its course for a while? Time will tell…
For more in-depth analysis of the Major FX Pairs and Price Action Signals please Join Our Forex Course and Members Community
Daily Market Commentary: 11-18-2009
On Wall Street today stocks closed lower after a surprising drop in home construction and a disappointing forecast from technology companies fueled worries that the economic recovery may be slowing.
This slight drop came one day after major stock indicators closed at 13-month highs. The Dow closed down 11 points after rising 9 of the past 11 days. Some market analysts are saying the market has been overdue for a pullback after the unusually fast climb.
Crude oil rose on Wednesday for the third consecutive trading session. Government data showed a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories which led the dollar lower.
Gold rose to another record high on Wednesday as dollar weakness continued.
In currencies, the dollar fell against most of the majors on Wednesday as traders took profits on the currency’s biggest rise in three weeks. New data out today did little to alter the view that U.S. interest rates will remain at record lows well into next year. The U.S. dollar may continue to weaken further, as forex traders feel the dollar is a risky bet right now given the current economic outlook. If today’s trend continues the dollar could be in for a bumpy rest of the week as the dollar sell-off may hit full force.
Nial’s view:
The daily chart of gbp/jpy is showing coiling inside bars over the last 4 trading days. Typically a tight coil like this results in a violent break out. Note that it could break up or down, the prevailing trend is down so this is the expectation.
Upcoming Important economic events:
4:30 am EST: British retail sales. This report can lead to volatile market reactions in the forex as retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
8:30am EST: U.S. Unemployment claims are released. Unemployment numbers are viewed as a broad indicator to over-all economic health. Higher than excepted unemployment is bad for the economy due to an assumed reduction in retail sales. A lower than expected number could add fuel to the current stock market rally, however higher than expected unemployment might weigh on what many analysts are already calling an over-bought market.
Daily Market Commentary: 11-17-2009
On wall street today stocks rose to a fresh 13-month high as upbeat broker views on improving prospects for two Dow components offset disappointing holiday spending outlooks from Target and Home Depot. The Dow closed up 30.46 points, or .29 percent, to end at 10,437.42. The Dow was down about 45 points at the morning low in New York. Oil prices rebounded from a morning sell-off to post a slight gain.
Gold futures squeezed in some small gains by the close of trading Tuesday, with the front-month contract ending at a record high, supported by a purchase of gold by the central bank of Mauritius and as mixed U.S. economic data failed to give much of a lift to the dollar.
The dollar gained on most major currencies over night in London, however by the New York close much of these gains were lost as major support and resistance levels held strong. The dollar is currently hovering near 15-month lows.
We can see EUR/USD bounced off the 1.4820 level here on the 4hr chart. A possible run at 1.5050 is possible in the near term.
Tomorrow’s important economic events:
Wednesday’s relevant forex events include a speech by ECB president Trichet at 3:40 am EST which could give some insight into up coming euro-zone interest rate movements.
At 4:30 am EST we have the Bank of England MPC (monetary policy committee) minutes coming out. This report can sometimes move the currency markets based on its insight into interest rate policy.
At 7:00 am EST we have core CPI coming out of Canada. The consumer price index measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. This report tells us a lot about overall inflation in the economy. Rising prices tend to lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
At 8:30 am EST we have building permits coming out of the U.S. . This report is a good gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a building permit is among the first steps in building a new structure.
Also at 8:30 am EST we have core CPI coming out of the U.S.
Good Trading
Daily Commentary:
Monday saw the dollar lose more ground to all major currencies. Retail sales in the U.S. rebounded in October; this led to a jump on Wall Street as investors reacted to the positive news. Retail sales is an important economic indicator because the U.S. consumer is vital to the overall health of the world economy.
Fed chairmen Bernanke reaffirmed in a speech today that the central bank would hold interest rates at record-low levels for an “extended period”, giving a further boost to stocks and weakening the dollar. Gold hit a new record high on the back of a sinking dollar, oil and other commodities were higher as well. All of the major dollar pairs are nearing significant support or resistance levels. Given the overall economic picture leaning towards a continuing weak dollar, current forex trends are expected to continue.
The euro has been in an uptrend against the dollar for quite sometime, given the current economic forecast this uptrend is expected to continue, however a decisive close above 1.5050 would be necessary to confirm this.
Tomorrow’s important economic events are as follows:
Swiss retail sales: This report is the primary gauge of consumer spending which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It comes out at 3:15 am EST
British CPI: Consumer price index is an important measure of inflation as it accounts for the majority of overall inflation. It comes out at 4:30 am EST
U.S. PPI: The producer price index report is leading indicator for consumer inflation; higher producer prices are usually passed on to the consumer. It comes out at 8:30 am EST
U.S. TIC long-term purchases: Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities. This report represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment. It comes out at 9:00 am EST
Good Trading
Nial Fuller - Learn To Trade The Market
Todays Forex Training Video : Understanding the ‘False Break “FAKEY” Price Action Strategy and More Information about My Forex Trading Members Forum and Forex Course. Please watch the ENTIRE VIDEO, the Forex Trading Lesson is In the second part. I hope you enjoy this Video, take care. Nial Fuller.
View Forex Price Action Strategies Video VideoWhat is price action?
Price action is the behavior of price of a specific currency, commodity, stock or other trading instrument over a specified period of time. Price action analysis deals with the predictive capacity of specific price patterns that occur on a semi-regular basis over a given period of time. Certain price patterns re-occur in [...]
Major Economic Events in Forex:
Economic indicators are closely watched in the investment world, their release can have an immediate and volatile effect on the forex market. There are three main types of indicators; leading, coincident, and lagging. Leading indicators are believed to change in advance of changes in the economy, which can give you some [...]
What to look for in a Forex trading mentor and why you need one. - The advantages of learning any skill or trade from a mentor are numerous. Some of these include; a drastically reduced learning curve, faster achievement of long-term goals in the given skill or trade, reduction in time spent doing trial and error, more personal time, greater emphasis on the more important aspects of the given skill or trade, the list of benefits that you reap from employing an experienced, credible, and knowledgeable mentor in any field are almost limitless. That being said, not all mentors are legit, especially in the world of forex trading, so when looking for a quality forex mentor we need to look for specific characteristics that make them credible.
Continue Reading What to look for in a Forex trading mentorThe Oxford Dictionary defines fear as ‘an unpleasant emotion caused by the anticipation of danger which leads to feelings of dread, anxiety and apprehension’. Fear is about the expectation that something detrimental could happen and constitutes a crucial physiological and cognitive mechanism functioning to aid our survival by causing us to either anticipate and avoid potentially dangerous situations, or, if we so chose, to face and confront them with a heightened state of alertness and focus. From an evolutionary perspective, fear leads to the instinctive ‘fight or flight’ response.
Continue Reading Overcoming Fear in Forex TradingGBPUSD - British Pound Vs US Dollar - Cable Outlook
This week, the GBPUSD is seen rallying strongly, momentarily about to collide with long term resistance at the 16741 level.
The short term outlook would be “sell short” from resistance, so trader can be weatching for intraday reversal signals from that area of the chart,
or even consider selling at the level. Until this pair can aggrsively close atop 16741 on the daily chart , it looks very possible that Cable will meet with sell pressure at the
higher side of this range.
This article explores the Truths About Forex and Futures Trading, an inside view from Nial Fuller
Continue Reading The truth about Forex and Futures TradingA brief introduction to forex charting:
The following article will give you a very basic introduction into the world of forex charting. It is designed for people with no prior charting knowledge and also for those who would like a quick reference guide or a refresher on the basic chart types that we use in forex. Since reading charts is the basis of what we do here at Learn To Trade , we need to start from a solid foundation and get the basics of charting out of the way. This material will give you the necessary information you will need to make sense out of my forex trading course. So let’s get started with our first lesson.
Continue Reading Forex Charts - Introduction to Forex ChartingDont Trade The News - Trade Price Action
Many traders get stuck in the trap of trading the news by over analyzing every single economic report that comes out and trying to guess what the market will do in response to it. It is very easy to develop this bad habit if you do not have a clear understanding of why trading the news is dangerous and essentially pointless. If you are basing your trading decisions off what you think will happen after an economic report comes out than you are just guessing and really have no better chance at a winning trade than if you were to flip a coin. Let’s discuss the reasons why trading the news can be one of the worst things you can do for your trading account.
Continue Reading Dont Trade News - Trade Price Action InsteadTips For Newbies - How to start your forex trading career.
Trading the forex market can be a very rich and rewarding experience for those who start from a solid foundation. For those that jump in head first with no previous training and no pre-defined plan to trade the forex market, disaster is only a trade a way. I mean that in the most literal sense because if you have no trading plan and no real idea of what being a successful forex trader entails, than you will quickly develop and reinforce all the wrong habits that eventually will destroy your trading account much faster than you think. This article is written out of personal experience and knowledge and will give you some idea of how to get started trading the forex market with the goal of consistent profits in mind.
Continue Reading Tips For Newbies - How to start your forex trading career.
